Below-average rain reduces orange harvest estimate – 01/03/2024 – Market

The lack of rain in recent months meant that the forecast for the 2023/24 orange harvest in the citrus belt formed by the interior of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro suffered a reduction of 2.12 million boxes of the fruit.

The data, from Fundecitrus (Citriculture Defense Fund), shows that orange varieties such as Pera Rio and Valência are not reaching the expected sizes due to the fact that it rains less than the historical average in the producing areas.

Although in percentage terms the re-estimate represents only 0.7% of the total harvest now projected at 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kilos each, the scenario is worrying because orange production in the world is falling and Brazil is the largest global producer. The forecast was already lower than that of the 2022/23 harvest, which was estimated at 316.95 million boxes.

Between May and November, the average rainfall in the main producing regions was 427 millimeters, 13% below the historical average from 1991 to 2020, but there are places where the total was well below this.

This is the case of the Triângulo Mineiro, which recorded only 307 millimeters of rain, and the Bebedouro region, with 372 millimeters. The regions of Matão, Duartina, Brotas, Porto Ferreira, Limeira and Avaré were also below average. Only Altinópolis, Votuporanga, São José do Rio Preto and Itapetininga were above average.

“The rainfall observed from May to November contradicts climate forecasts, which pointed to volumes with positive anomalies this season due to the El Niño phenomenon. These rainfall forecasts, which were not confirmed, were used in May 2023 as a basis for projecting the size of the fruits”, says Fundecitrus in its report.

Citrus grower Paulo Duarte, from Limeira, said that, in addition to raining less than expected, the irregularity of rainfall also interferes. “There were days when it rained a lot, a lot, all at once, and that’s not good either. The ideal would be to have regular, constant rain, but that’s not what happens,” he said. In the region, it rained 11% less than the average.

What happens to oranges worries producers of other crops, such as coffee. Global warming and irregular rainfall were topics of debate and concern during SIC (International Coffee Week), in November, in Belo Horizonte. Coffee growers say that resilience is needed and that they seek alternatives that allow them to maintain high production levels amid rising temperatures.

The scenario is not worse for the citrus industry because, coincidentally, the rains at the beginning of 2023 resulted in a greater production of oranges of early varieties – that is, harvested before the others. Their production exceeded the estimate by 2.27 million boxes.

Varieties such as pera rio and valencia saw a reduction of 4.39 million boxes. This occurred because the fruits are smaller than expected due to the lack of rain. With smaller fruit, more units are needed to make up a 40.8 kilo box.

Fundecitrus’ initial forecast indicated the need to have 247 fruits to form a box, a total that today stands at 255 units of 160 grams each.

In addition to the lack of rain, the high temperatures recorded in the citrus belt in the last three months caused an increase in the rate of evapotranspiration and the advance of greening also caused variations in the size of the oranges.

The main pest in citrus farming, greening grew rapidly in São Paulo’s orchards, with a 56% increase in incidence in just one year in the citrus belt.

The disease advanced so much because the psyllid that transmits the greening bacteria – the insect Diaphorina citriwhich measures from 2 mm to 3 mm – has shown resistance to some groups of insecticides used in daily citrus farming.

GLOBAL FALL

Brazil is the main supplier of orange juice on the planet, with around 75% of international trade, and any shock to domestic production generates repercussions in other countries.

Orange juice stocks in the country reached the lowest level ever recorded on July 1st, with a drop of 40.7% compared to the previous harvest, thanks to the restriction of domestic supply and problems faced in other countries, mainly the United States. , according to data from CitrusBR (National Association of Citrus Juice Exporters).

In France, Unijus (association of fruit juice manufacturers) reported as unprecedented the shortage of orange concentrates “observed on the world market” and cited that pressure had increased on Brazil and that the result was the country’s inability to honor orders made.

In Florida (USA), there are two difficulties experienced: greening and the reflections of Hurricane Ian, which hit the North American state in September 2022.

Other producing countries, such as Mexico and Spain, also had problems with drought and lack of water, respectively.