Analysis: Lula risks shock to end military crisis – 01/21/2023 – Politics

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) opted for shock treatment, a proverbial atomic bomb, to try to put an end to the incipient crisis he is experiencing with the Armed Forces. It is a gamble that carries risks.

General Tomás Miguel Ribeiro Paiva arrives at the head of the Army with a complex mission, that of framing his more radicalized peers in the High Command. None of this should transform the petista into a man admired by the uniforms, but in recent days there were observers of the military scene concerned with the degree of bitterness in the collegiate.

It is made up of 16 four-star military personnel, the highest military rank, and the Land Force is dominant over the Navy and Air Force as it concentrates around 60% of the 360,000 Brazilian uniforms and has strong capillarity.

Since the coup d’état by Jair Bolsonaro (PL) led its adherents to the doors of barracks across the country, a debate has arisen in the group. No less than four of its members openly spoke of supporting the radicals, with clear hints of dissatisfaction with the election result.

Lula’s reaction to the Brazilian Capitol on January 8 consolidated the estrangement. There was a reading, even among the most moderate generals, that the PT was incisive in pointing out part of the blame for the turmoil in the Praça dos Três Poderes nas Forças as an institution.

Minister José Múcio (Defense), criticized by his boss for having acted softly with the coup leaders before the fateful Sunday, in the end managed to appease the relationship with admirals and brigadiers. The reckoning with the generals was missing, even in Lula’s view of at least the Army’s leniency in the face of the Bolsonarist coup d’état of recent years.

This certainty, shared with interlocutors, shows that the acute phase of the crisis can be overcome, but that the malaise in the barracks should continue, analyzing the use of the dismissal procedure in other cases.

It is something rare, having occurred when Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) dismissed a FAB commander for criticizing the Minister of Defense in 1999, and in the most serious episode since the 1977 convulsion, when Bolsonaro overthrew the entire Defense leadership in 2021, in movement that crystallized its kidnapping of the military establishment.

Tomás’ work will be facilitated for two reasons. First, he was already one of the favorites for the position in December by seniority (second in line), being left out because General Julio César de Arruda was older and due to a fear, among PT members, of his political instances.

He is respected as a troop leader and, in addition, has a diverse dialogue — he was FHC’s assistant, talks well with politicians, had his nomination supported by former defense ministers.

The second point in his favor is precisely the path taken with such ease.

Tomás was chief of staff for Eduardo Villas Bôas, the army commander who led the return of the military to the political arena under Bolsonaro, and in that capacity he helped write the famous tweet in which the general admonished the Supreme Court not to grant the habeas corpus that would have prevented 580 days in jail for Lula, in 2018.

Tomás, already on his way to the reserve, delivered a vigorous speech in defense of democracy and the Army’s non-partisanship on Wednesday (18), when Lula was already looking for an alternative to frame the Force. The eloquence in defense of the result of the polls and the apolitical role of the military was the equivalent of a homily given by a cardinal candidate for pope in one of the nine masses that precede a conclave: a letter of commitment.

Arruda, a conservative choice of Múcio, showed little reactivity to the president’s desire to punish those involved in vandalism in Brasília.

It will be up to Tomás to navigate the natural turbulence of a traumatic event, in the view of the barracks, such as resignation in the name of asserting authority. Therein lies Lula’s greatest risk, that her act will end up planting more dissatisfaction to emerge.

If the situation settles down, however, Lula may have taken the first step to push politics and activist Bolsonarism out of the barracks, at the same time keeping the peacemaker Múcio in the chair —if it depended on the PT, the minister was already in the chair. Street. It would have been no small feat, given the reigning animosity.