Analysis: Centrão bets on an early crack in Lula’s base – 02/03/2023 – Politics

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) prioritized legislative proposals that, in the view of centrão leaders, will divide the left alliance.

PT, PC do B, PSOL and other allied acronyms of the president will be pushed to discuss –outside the ideological field– changes in the tax and tribute system in the country and a new rule for controlling expenses.

But will they vote in favor of these proposals?

Influential parliamentarians from the centrão think that the first split in the core of Lula’s political base will then take place this semester.

It is the moment when these parties, such as the Republicans, the PP and even the PL of former President Jair Bolsonaro, think they will gain even more strength. Officially, they will once again spread the discourse that the bloc guarantees governance for the country and represents political stability. But that comes at a price.

Lula put into practice a negotiation to answer requests separately from the wings of these three parties and also from União Brasil.

These are second- and third-tier positions. Some with great political potential, such as command of Codevasf and Correios. Others of only local influence.

The centrão takes advantage of the dispersion of power in these parties to negotiate at the retail level.

The strategy of Lula’s articulators is to attract allies in hand-to-hand with parliamentarians from these benches, which, in the view of Planalto members, opens up space for a more robust alliance in the future.

Leaders of these acronyms say that it is not possible, for the time being, to officially embark on Lula’s base. The transition has to be slower.

The União Brasil, which was created after the merger of the PSL with the DEM, has different political groups and, despite having three ministries on the Esplanada de Lula, it still declares itself an independent party from the government.

PP and Republicans are already envisioning a ministerial reform to consolidate adherence to the PT government. The Ministry of Health is one of the targets, especially of the PP, which has already occupied this space in previous governments.

The portfolio has a high budget, political clout and is currently headed by a technical staff, Minister Nísia Trindade, who was Lula’s personal choice.

There is also interest in MEC (Education) and Mdic (Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services), the latter occupied by vice-president Geraldo Alckmin (PSB).

The president’s articulators do not rule out a ministerial reform later this year, as the money that was for amendments should be used in the most immediate negotiations, such as in important votes.

The game of politics has now begun (that Congress has started work). And Lula, experienced, in his third term, kept a big package of goodies for the parliamentarians for the negotiations.

In addition to positions, PT assistants also claim that amendments will be distributed – but in a less transparent format than the former rapporteur amendments.

Lula’s candidates, Arthur Lira (PP-AL) and Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), were re-elected as presidents of the Chamber and Senate. Now, say PT organizers, it’s time to accelerate the formation of the government’s base in Congress.

Everything will be released in policy time.

Lula’s message to the Legislature is that he wants to talk to everyone, even the PL, and that it is natural, in a democracy, to share government space with allies.

The news from the negotiation desk at the Planalto Palace generate jealousy within the centrão – the bloc is generally cohesive, but the race for positions and favors follows the interest of each core of the parties.

Lula has responded to political requests, but at the pace of sewing agreements so that he can govern with Congress.

The itinerary of members of the Planalto and members of the centrão is quite convergent. But the timing of a more ostentatious political move will depend on the government’s dependence on Congress.

As Lula wants to get rid of the spending cap and touch on economic issues that are dear to the left, the government’s base will need to be more stable. And Bolsonaro’s former allies have already volunteered for the mission.