Analysis: Bolsonaro throws Tarcísio to the lions of Bolsonarism – 7/6/2023 – Politics

“Yesterday, a lot of people were upset with Tarcísio, even me”, said this Thursday morning (6) former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), during a meeting with his most successful sponsor in 2022, governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans-SP).

An astonished Tarcísio had been thrown to the lions of Bolsonarism, starting with the leader of the sect, when trying to explain his change of position the day before, when he held a press conference alongside the rival he defeated in the São Paulo election, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad ( PT), saying that he would support the vote on the tax reform.

After repeating “let me try to explain” several times, in the face of jeers and interruptions, the governor lost patience and said: “If you don’t think the tax reform is important, don’t vote”, not before saying that it will end up being approved without the chance of being a right-wing agenda.

To complete, Tarcísio had the images immediately posted on the net by deputies present, including reposted by Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), the carbonarian presidential son. The circus was complete.

The episode suggests the beginnings of a split in the Brazilian right after the ruling of Bolsonaro’s ineligibility by the Superior Electoral Court, which removed him from the race in 2026 and 2028. that this was not the initial plan of its main political strategist, Gilberto Kassab (PSD).

Tarcísio’s Secretary of Government, the pessist repeats that the ideal is for the governor to focus on his term, seek re-election and only think about the Planalto in 2030. Allies of the two also mention that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) may be in a strong position for 2026.

The problem with the settlement is that, due to circumstances that may still change depending on legal developments, Bolsonaro could be back in the race. With that, if it is not yet an inevitable schism, the fight over the tax reform anticipates the tensions that challenge Tarcísio’s calculations.

The available reports of the subsequent meeting between the trembling allies, in which Bolsonaro called him inexperienced, as he had done before, show that there are heavy clouds in the field of the right. Bolsonarist social networks, queens of stridency, already paint Tarcísio as a traitor, creating hashtags and such.

This should speed up the splitting of the group, of course. Bolsonarism did not bother to spit out other elements that were dear to it when the former president so determined, as in the case of former Minister of Education Abraham Weintraub.

But there are questions of another nature. Tarcísio had a vote close to Bolsonaro’s in São Paulo: both had the same 55% in the second round in 2022 in the state. In fact, each sign of independence issued by the governor is followed by a caress for Bolsonaro, who was even a guest at the Palácio dos Bandeirantes.

Bolsonaristas of different calibers are accommodated in the government, and Tarcísio every now and then betrays his affiliation, as in the case of the homage to the dictatorship’s hero Erasmo Dias. This bite-and-blow adopted by the governor is being tested in this first public crisis.

There is the underlying fact that Bolsonaro does not want to sink into irrelevance. The fact that he was present at the PL meeting to speak ill of the reform is proof that he, at least, will try to do what he never knew how to do, lead political groups outside the platform and virtuality. He knows that, if he manages to run in 2030, it will be more difficult to do so with Tarcísio either re-elected or on the Planalto.

Obviously, these are extreme long-term conjectures. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t being done, on both sides of the counter of a right that seems increasingly doomed to division. Before Bolsonaro’s disqualification for his coup d’état, 32% of voters said they were in the Bolsonarism sphere, 25% of them with conviction, according to Datafolha.

It remains to be seen how this contingent will behave, especially with the absence of Bolsonaro’s name in the electronic ballot box that he has always fought.