After 7 months on the rise, rice prices fall in supermarkets – 04/03/2024 – Vaivém

After the most critical effect of El Niño has passed, “in natura” products, which had been putting pressure on consumers’ pockets, are showing a more moderate behavior.

Data from Fipe (Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas), referring to March and released this Wednesday (3), indicate that “in natura” foods are still on the rise, but with the lowest rate of evolution in six months.

Rice, with the harvest advancing over a third of the sown area, recorded the first drop in consumer prices after seven months of rising prices.

The lower supply of the product on the domestic market in recent months caused an accumulated increase of 30% in prices from April last year to last March.

Beans, which gave consumers a break in the second half of last year, accumulated an increase of 16% in the first quarter of this year.

Fipe includes in the “in natura” group fruits, vegetables, greens, eggs and so-called tubers (potatoes, onions and garlic). Vegetables, for the first time recorded a negative rate since October last year.

On average, vegetable prices fell 0.31% in March. Despite the drop, the accumulated rate in the first quarter is still 8%, showing the effects of the climate on the production and supply of these products.

Vegetables, driven by tomatoes, had an increase of 2.64% last month, below the 4.9% in February. This was a sector that had been weighing heavily on consumers’ pockets, due to the 9.5% increase in the first quarter.

The fruits remain high for nine months. The sector is influenced by the correction in the prices of bananas, papayas, melons and oranges. The latter has accumulated an increase of 34% in the last 12 months, and will only have a greater offer in May, after the off-season.

João Paulo Bernardes Deleo, researcher at Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics) says that consumers will have good news from now on. There is already a downward trend in vegetables, but each crop has its own specific calendar.

Once the effect of excess rain, caused by El Niño, has passed, the producer will have greater control over the harvest, obtaining better productivity, especially with irrigation when the plant needs water.

Deleo says that this accommodation and even price decline has already started and that it will become more present in the coming months in the winter harvest, with bigger drops in July.

According to the researcher, prices become more favorable for consumers until October, as long as there are no anomalies in production. From November onwards the summer harvest begins.

Fruits have a slightly different scenario. Fernanda Geraldini, a researcher at Cepea, says that the first semester always has a smaller offer.

This year, there is the aggravation of El Niño. It causes excess rainfall in the Northeast, affecting the plant development cycle, and brings a smaller volume in the Southeast. Quality and productivity are affected.

According to Fipe, food, on average, is under lower pressure this month than in the previous one. The increase was 0.78%.

The pressure from some products, however, still remains strong in the general index. In March, just five items in the sector (milk, onion, banana, tomato and beans) were responsible for 54% of the general inflation rate, which was 0.26% in São Paulo.

Another five (potatoes, sirloins, soybean oil, rump and passion fruit), however, fell, preventing a greater increase in the general index.

Beef, without a reaction in the prices of fed cattle on pasture, continues to fall. Milk is one of the areas of greatest pressure at the beginning of the year, with a 10% increase in supermarkets.

The rise in milk prices for consumers is a reflection of the lower supply. The price of the product has been rising in the countryside for four months, due to lower funding.

Proteins Brazilians will have a record 102 kilos of meat available to consume this year. This is an average, taking into account the total population. Of course, many will be far from this level.

Proteins 2 The data comes from Conab (National Supply Company), which estimates a total production of 31 million tons of meat (beef, pork and chicken) for the year.

Exports Of this volume, 10 million tons will be exported, leaving 21 million on the domestic market.

Leadership The largest production will be chicken meat, which will reach 15.4 million tons. Beef production rises to 10 million, and pork production to 5.5 million.

Eggs The country will produce 41.1 billion eggs this year, an average of 200 units per person.