Accommodated in the government, parties seek support for Lira’s succession

Accommodated in the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) after the mini-ministerial reform, the Centrão parties are already eyeing the succession of the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), who will leave the post in February 2025 So far, the most popular names are Elmar Nascimento (União-BA), an ally of Lira, and Marcos Pereira, president of the Republicans.

The election is still a year and a half away, but the coordination that resulted in the entry of Celso Sabino (Union), André Fufuca (PP) and Sílvio Costa Filho (Republicans) into the government was made with a view to changing the leadership of the House, according to parliamentarians interviewed by the report. Both Republicans and Lira’s group seek government support for 2025.

“The mini-ministerial reform is part of a strategy to control the current group, which is presided over by Lira”, says José Nelto (PP-GO), deputy leader of the largest bloc of parties in the Chamber (formed by União, PP , PSDB-Citizenship Federation, PDT, PSB, Avante, Solidariedade and Patriota, with 174 deputies). The perception is the same between Republican and opposition parliamentarians.

After the PP, Republicans and Union joined the government, Lira stated that Lula has a base of around 350 deputies in the Chamber, which would be enough to approve Proposed Amendments to the Constitution (PEC). However, Nelto remembers that, despite this, the PT administration is not in a position to launch its own candidate for the presidency of the Chamber and, therefore, must support a name from Centrão.

Deputy Maurício Marcon (PL-RS), from the opposition, also assesses that all the political bargaining for positions on the Esplanada dos Ministérios and in bodies such as Caixa Econômica Federal, Fundação Nacional de Saúde (Funasa) and Correios – these are still under negotiation – it goes beyond the allocation of positions and a greater share in the release of amendments.

“The Centrão is keeping an eye on Arthur Lira’s succession, in 2025, and needs support from the Lula government to guarantee continuity in power”, he states.

Blocão de Lira and Republicans bet on their own names

Deputy Elmar Nascimento (União-BA) is the bet of Lira himself and the bloc of União, PP and other parties. The Bahian was once critical of Lula (he already called him an ex-convict), but has now softened his tone with an eye on the Planalto Palace’s support for 2025. He was even part of the Brazilian delegation that accompanied Lula at the 78th General Assembly of the United Nations in New York earlier this week.

In the Republicans, the candidate must be the president of the party, federal deputy Marcos Pereira (SP), who has already made a Test drive in post this week, while Lira participated in the United Nations Conference in New York, in the United States.

A Republican deputy, who spoke on condition of anonymity to comment behind the scenes, reveals that Pereira is the party’s main project at the moment. Despite maintaining his stance of independence – even after the appointment of Sílvio Costa Filho to command the Ministry of Ports and Airports –, Pereira will have to count on the government’s support to obtain the presidency of the Chamber, in the opinion of the congressman.

Lira will try to maintain power even outside the presidency of the Chamber

For political scientist Antônio Flávio Testa, Arthur Lira has invested heavily in maintaining his power of influence in the PP, together with his current ally Ciro Nogueira, president of the party. According to the analyst, “Lira knows of her power, as president of the Chamber and Lula knows that he will need it more and more, until the end of his term [do atual presidente da Câmara]”.

Testa assesses that the PT member may still have to hand over more positions to the group led by the current president of the Chamber, including Lira himself. Recently asking if this possibility existed, in an interview with the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo, Lira replied that she “doesn’t talk about conjectures”. But a source heard by People’s Gazette said that the agreement now signed in the mini-ministerial reform provides for a vacancy for Lira in the Ministry of Agriculture, when he leaves the presidency of the Chamber.

He believes that Marcos Pereira has more advantages, at this moment, in the dispute for the presidency of the Chamber. “Pereira has always been an ally of the PT and obeys the business dictates of Edir Macedo, from the Universal Church.”

Political scientist Jorge Mizael, from Metapolitics Consultoria, agrees and remembers that Pereira was already a minister during the government of Michel Temer (MDB) and has predicates that qualify him to compete for the position, in addition to being very close to the former president of the Chamber , Rodrigo Maia, and also Lira.

Still according to the analyst, another candidate who could “run out” in the dispute would be deputy Antônio Brito (PSD-BA), who, in Mizael’s analysis, is an “experienced and silent politician”.

Alliance between Lula and Lira will still have tests

For Mizael, regardless of which Centrão parliamentarian occupies Lira’s seat, the situation shows the PT’s lack of interest in forming a leader capable of running the Chamber of Deputies.

“This is worrying for the government, having to, in some way, ally and bow before two other figures from the Centrão, because it was unable to form within its ranks someone capable of forming alliances to dispute the succession of Arthur’s seat Lira”.

Regarding the understandings reached between Lira and Lula for the mini-reform and the success of this alliance, Mizael assesses that it is still too early to say whether the partnership will truly be successful.

“It starts now with this attempt, but it is sensitive, it will still depend on several factors to sign and implement medium and long-term agreements.”