2023 is the hottest year on record; see in 3 graphs – 12/29/2023 – Environment

After successive records, 2023 comes to an end with the title of hottest year on record. Considering both daily data and paleoclimatic studies, which analyze elements such as very old ice sheets, it is possible to point out that temperatures reached the highest levels in 125 thousand years.

The December numbers have not yet been consolidated and should be released in the first days of 2024. Despite this, data from the European Copernicus observatory indicate that the first three weeks of the month had temperatures around 1°C above the historical average for the period.

Furthermore, from June to November, every month broke the heat record for that time of year — and July was the hottest month in Earth’s recent history, being approximately 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850). -1900).

In the year to November, the global average temperature for 2023 was the highest ever recorded: 1.46°C above the pre-industrial average, and 0.13°C above the eleven-month average in 2016, which was the hottest year so far.

“What explains such high temperatures in 2023 is the combination of the phenomenon of global warming, which is a constant increase in temperatures, with the establishment of El Niño”, points out meteorologist Marcelo Seluchi, general coordinator of Operations and Modeling at Cemaden (National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alerts).

El Niño warms the waters of the Pacific Ocean near the Equator, warming the planet and changing weather patterns around the world.

Seluchi says that, to some extent, the oceans absorb some of the heat from the atmosphere associated with the greenhouse effect. However, when these limits are exceeded, the waters become too warm and El Niño tends to be more frequent.

“If you look at the last 120 years, for example, there is a greater frequency [de anos de El Niño] in the last 60 years than in the first 60 years, from 1900 to 1960”, says the researcher.

Temperature records have been recorded since the beginning of summer in the northern hemisphere (which occurs in June and September). The season was even the warmest ever recorded in the Arctic, reinforcing trends such as the occurrence of less sea ice, more rain and warmer temperatures on the region’s sea surface.

Brazilians also experienced the hottest year in history: nine heat waves sent thermometers soaring over the last 12 months — reaching, in November, a record of 44.8°C in the Minas Gerais municipality of Araçuaí, in Vale do Jequitinhonha.

Paris Agreement at risk

That month, a historic milestone for the planet was also surpassed: on the 17th, the temperature variation (or temperature anomaly, in scientific jargon) was 2.07°C above the pre-industrial average, according to Copernicus.

The fee is symbolic because of the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep the increase in the global average temperature “well below 2°C”, with efforts to “limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”. The measure is necessary to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of the climate crisis.

The November records do not mean that the deal has already been broken, which will only happen if rates like this are recorded frequently. But the record serves as a warning, as scientists emphasize that each increase in global temperature represents an increase in the occurrence and intensity of extreme weather events.

“Hotter oceans evaporate more water. So, you have more steam, which is the main input for precipitation. Furthermore, a warmer atmosphere can also retain more water”, explains Seluchi. “Thus, precipitation tends to become more extreme, but also, on the other hand, dry episodes become longer.”

This year, high temperatures caused disasters around the world — such as storms that devastated places as far apart as Rio Grande do Sul and China, and droughts that isolated Amazonian riverside communities and caused Canada to burn in flames.

Sample of the future

For physicist Paulo Artaxo, member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), linked to the UN, these phenomena are a sample of the future, if carbon emissions from human activities do not fall significantly.

“2023 was the year in which the acceleration of climate change became most evident. We observed a huge increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events”, he points out.

“Since 1980, the number of extreme weather events has increased by a factor of 4 and this clearly shows that we are on a really dangerous trajectory”, the researcher also states.

Artaxo highlights some data to illustrate how risky this path can be.

“IPCC projections predict that, if we continue with the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions — which today is in the order of 62 billion tons being thrown into the atmosphere every year, with an increasing rate of 2% to 4% per year, year—we could reach temperatures of the order of 2.5°C to 3°C in the second half of this century.”

The main source of carbon emissions in the world is the burning of fossil fuels. Other important causes are deforestation, agriculture and industry.

According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization), global emissions rose 1.2% from 2021 to 2022, reaching a record equivalent to 57.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide.

Therefore, without cutting emissions, the future will be hotter, and the extreme temperatures recorded in 2023 could become increasingly common.

Marcelo Seluchi explains that the future will not always have a year hotter than the previous one, but rather cycles that will result in higher temperatures, in the broader scenario.

“There is a certain cycle. For example, years of [fenômeno climático] La Niña are usually a little colder. So if after 2024 or 2025 it is a La Niña year, it is likely to be colder than 2023, but the general trend is upwards,” he says.

“In the future, [a tendência é que] every time we have an El Niño — at least a strong or moderate to strong El Niño — that will be the hottest year yet.”