Video deceives by ‘checking’ Lula’s speech on inequality and points out non-existent error about the Amazon – 07/06/2023 – Market

The “check” that the author of the video verified by Projeto Comprova makes on excerpts from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (PT) speech during a summit organized by the French government, on June 23, to discuss a new global financial pact is misleading. .

One of the points discussed is the increase in social inequality mentioned by President Lula. The author argues that the statement is false because it has increased the number of millionaires in the world, but his interpretation is wrong.

According to economist Luciano Nakabashi, inequality is not evaluated by the number of existing millionaires, but by measures established in the literature, mainly the Gini Index, which calculates how each portion of the population receives income. The comparison is not made by how many individuals there are in the stratum, but by how many percent of the total income each stratum earns.

In addition, the person responsible for recording the content cites the Global Wealth Report 2022, produced by the European bank Credit Suisse, to support the presented thesis. However, while the document does point to the increase in millionaires, it also highlights that, in the two-year period of the pandemic, between 2020 and 2021, all indices pointed to an increase in global wealth inequality.

In another part of the video, the author states that Lula is wrong when he mentions the size of the Amazon. While the president says that, in Brazil alone, the Amazon has 5 million km², the author of the video claims that “the Amazon biome has about 6.7 million km²”, with 4 million km² in Brazil.

The two refer to different definitions. Lula cites the measurement of the Legal Amazon, which in Brazil has 5,015,068.18 km². The author of the video mentions the Amazon biome, which measures 4.2 million km² in Brazil. The International Amazon measures about 6.7 million km². The Legal Amazon corresponds to the area of ​​influence of the Amazon biome in the country, even in areas without forest. The biome encompasses the forest area.

Misleading, for Comprova, is content removed from the original context and used in another so that its meaning undergoes changes; that uses inaccurate data or that induces an interpretation different from the author’s intention; content that is confusing, with or without the deliberate intent to cause harm.

Reach

Comprova investigates suspicious content with greater reach on social networks. The verified video had 6,100 views on YouTube, where it was originally posted. It has also been shared on Kwai, where it has been viewed an additional 20.1k times, and on TikTok, where it has received 67.2k views as of July 6, 2023.

How do we check

The first step was to identify the origin of the video that went viral on social networks and the strategy for this was to search for the keywords used to identify the post on other platforms, such as TikTok and YouTube. In the latter, the original video, 7 minutes long, was identified on the channel of the person who appears in the video claiming to deny President Lula. The audio of the video was transcribed using the Transkriptor platform.

With that, we started to verify the points that the man claims to be lies told in the presidential speech and clarify with authorities, specialists and documents what the true data and information are. We also contacted the Ministry of the Environment to clarify the size of the Amazon and experts to clarify social inequality.

inappropriate metric

It is misleading to associate the increase in the number of millionaires in the world with a supposed decrease in social inequality because this is not the metric used for this calculation. Economist Luciano Nakabashi, professor at Fearp-USP (Faculty of Economics, Administration and Accounting of Ribeirão Preto, University of São Paulo), explains that looking only at the number of millionaires in a society does not mean much.

“When we talk about income distribution, we are talking about how each part of the population receives income, that is, you take the poorest 10% and see how many percent of the income they have; then you take the lowest 10% rich and see how many percent of income this layer has, the analysis starts from there”, he said.

According to the economist, to analyze income distribution it is better to focus on the poorest part of the population, as it is the one that most feels a poor income distribution. “Looking at the number of poor people in an economy is much more relevant to issues of social policies, social welfare, a just society, than looking at the number of millionaires”, he observes, adding that it makes no difference whether there are more millionaires, as comparison should be how many percent of income this bracket earns.

For this, he informs, there are measures established in the literature, with the Gini Index being the most used. As the Politize! platform explains in detail, this is a statistical methodology capable of measuring the degree of inequality in income distribution, using the Lorenz curve (graph formed by the various layers of the population and their income). The Gini coefficient is defined as the ratio between the area of ​​inequality and the maximum value it can assume.

This is the model currently used by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), through the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Continuous PNAD), to measure the social scenario in Brazil.

Still according to Nakabashi, the closer the indicator is to zero, the more egalitarian a society is. In Brazil, the most current IBGE survey, released in May, points out that the Gini of per capita household income fell from 0.544 to 0.518 in 2022, that is, there was a decrease in income inequality in the population as a whole. Before that, he had been growing. The IBGE points out that, despite the reduction in the Gini in the last year, inequality remains. In 2022, the average per capita household income of the top 1% of the population was 32.5 times the average income of the bottom 50%. In 2021, this ratio was 38.4 times.

Increased inequality

To support his thesis, the author of the video cites a survey by Credit Suisse, which points to the increase in millionaires and projects growth in this direction for the coming years. However, the author of the piece omits that the Global Wealth Report 2022, produced by the Swiss bank, informs that, in the two-year period of the pandemic, 2020 and 2021, all indices indicated that global wealth inequality increased. This was covered by the professional press in Brazil.

The information can be found from page 32 of the report. According to the document, the analyzed data set allows estimating that 50% of adults at the base of the global distribution of wealth represent, together, less than 1% of total global wealth at the end of 2021. In contrast, the richest level (10% richest adults) own 82% of global wealth.

Global millionaires surpassed 1% of adults for the first time in 2020 and the group has been growing rapidly, but they are becoming increasingly dominant in terms of total wealth ownership and share of global wealth. The aggregate wealth of millionaires has grown fivefold, from US$41.4 trillion in 2000 to US$221.7 trillion in 2021, and their share of global wealth has increased from 35% to 48% over the same period.

According to the survey, participation in the layers of the wealth pyramid is quite distinct in terms of residence and personal characteristics. The bottom tier has the most even distribution across regions and countries, but also the widest range of personal circumstances.

In developed countries, around 30% of adults fall into this category, and for most of these individuals, membership is transitory—due to business losses or unemployment, for example—or a stage in the life cycle associated with youth or old age. .

By contrast, in many low-income countries, over 80% of the adult population falls within this range, so lifelong membership at the basic level is often the norm.

In January of this year, Oxfam, a global entity that acts against inequality, released a report stating that 1% of the richest people on Earth obtained almost two-thirds of the new wealth created since the beginning of the pandemic.

As reported by the Washington Post, the “Survival of the Richest” survey highlights that the world’s richest absorbed a greater proportion of global wealth during the pandemic and in the last decade, while global poverty has increased for the first time in 25 years.

different definitions

While Lula claims that, in Brazil alone, the Amazon has 5 million km² and there is still an extension in other countries, the author of the video says that the Amazon biome has about 6.7 million km², of which around 4 million km² in Brazil. Both use correct data when talking about the Amazon, but from different perspectives.

The president is referring to the Legal Amazon measure, created by Complementary Law 124 of 2007. According to the latest IBGE update, from 2021, this portion actually measures 5,015,068.18 km².

This is the area in which Sudam (Amazon Development Superintendence) operates and covers the states of Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Rondônia, Roraima, Tocantins, Pará and Maranhão, in its western portion of the 44th meridian.

According to the law, “Sudam aims to promote the inclusive and sustainable development of its area of ​​operation and the competitive integration of the regional productive base in the national and international economy”. In other words, the Legal Amazon stems from a definition by the federal government and corresponds to the area of ​​influence of the Amazon biome in the country, even in areas without the presence of the forest.

The author of the video mentions the Amazon biome, which measures around 4.2 million km² in Brazil, according to the Ministry of the Environment. The agency clarified to Comprova that the International Amazon, in fact, measures about 6.7 million km² and encompasses the forest area in all eight Amazonian countries.

The biome is a biological definition and corresponds to the space where the Amazon forest exists. According to the Brazilian Institute of Forests, the Amazon passes through the territories of Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Pará and Roraima, and part of the territory of Maranhão, Mato Grosso, Rondônia and Tocantins.

What the person responsible for the publication says

The report got in touch with the author of the video, Paulo Baltokoski, who identifies himself as a writer, lecturer and architect. He reaffirmed what he says in the publication and argued that the interpretation of the subject involves ideological issues. Finally, he informed that he will keep his original publications (video on YouTube and a summarized version on Instagram and TikTok) and that he cannot be responsible for the post on Kwai, a network in which he claims he does not have an account.

What can we learn from this check

The analyzed video distortedly uses fact-checking (a journalistic method used to verify that information is true and was obtained reliably) to deceive about content that it intends to disqualify, in this case Lula’s speech.

For this, the author presents distorted data and omits information from the sources he cites —as in the case of the Swiss bank report. Users of social networks must be aware of checks that are not carried out by the professional press or official bodies. Information such as numbers and reports cited in these contents can be easily verified using search engines such as Google.

why do we investigate

Comprova monitors suspicious content published on social networks and messaging apps about public policies and elections at the federal level and opens investigations for those publications that have achieved greater reach and engagement. You can also suggest checks via WhatsApp +55 11 97045-4984. Suggestions and questions related to questionable content can also be sent to Sheet via WhatsApp 11 99486-0293.

Other checks on the topic

Lula is a constant target of misinformation on the networks, which has continued to occur since he took office. Recently, for example, Comprova proved to be false that he bought a new presidential plane for 400 million and that the US president, Joe Biden, convened Congress for speeches by the Brazilian in support of Venezuela. It also proved to be untrue that the PT candidate reappointed Nestor Cerveró to Petrobras.