US soybean harvest is lower, but prices fall – 07/12/2023 – Shuttle

American soy production is even more distant from that of Brazil. Still very preliminary estimates of this Wednesday (12) by the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) indicate that Brazil will harvest 163 million tons in the period 2023/24.

US production, initially forecast at 123 million, drops to 117 million. The American crop has already been planted and the Brazilian one will only start in two months.

The reduction in planting area and crop in the United States was already expected by the market. So much so that prices, despite these negative numbers, fell this Wednesday in Chicago.

Soybeans for the November contract, when the US crop will be pretty much set, dropped to $13.28 a bushel (27.2 kg), 2.4% below Tuesday’s.

The drop in prices is due to estimates of a reduction in American exports of 6.3%, to 50 million tons, and ending stocks of 8.2 million tons, a volume considered by the market as not so low.

According to AgRural, in the current assessment of the USDA, the Americans would end the 2023/24 harvest with enough stocks for 26 days, 19% more than in the previous one.

World production of this crop is projected at 405 million tons, 10% more than the previous one. All major countries will have production evolution. The most prominent is Argentina, which, after falling to 25 million in 2022/23, could return to normal levels and reach 48 million.

One of the main products of the two countries’ crops, the accumulated production of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina has the potential for 211 million tons, provided the weather helps.

If soy loses area in the United States, corn gains. In the evaluation of the USDA this Wednesday, the area of ​​the cereal goes to 38.1 million hectares, 6.2% more than in the previous one.

Production has potential for 389 million tons, 12% more than in 2022/23. The US estimate for Brazil is 129 million tons in 2023/24. Argentina will be able to harvest 41 million, up 84%. The Argentines have been punished by the climate in the production of grains.

Chicago corn prices, forecast for increased production, fell to $4.76 per bushel (25.4 kg) in the September contract, down 3.7% on the day.

The data on grain production in Brazil should be released this Thursday by Conab (National Supply Company) and by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).

The European Union, after a bad year in 2022/23, should increase the 2023/24 harvest to 288 million tons, 8% more than the previous one. With that, imports, which increased 44% in relation to the average of the last five years, will retreat to 26 million tons, a drop of 25%.

Brazil remains the leader in offering agrifood products to Europeans, but the search for the Ukrainian product has increased a lot. In the first three months of this year, Brazilian exports to the European Union increased by 9%, while those of Ukrainians rose by 61%.

exchange ratio Even with the devaluations of corn and soy bran last month in the internal market, compared to May, the purchasing power of pig farmers in São Paulo has fallen.

exchange ratio 2 The drop in purchasing power occurs because the retraction in the price of live animals was even more pronounced than that of costs, according to Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics).

external challenge RAR, a company from Rio Grande do Sul created by Raul Anselmo Randon in the 1970s and initially focused on producing and exporting apples, diversified.

external challenge 2 In the first five months of this year, net revenues from the domestic and foreign markets increased by 17%, compared to the same period of 2022. For the year, RAR expects an evolution of 25%.

New products Despite the challenges in the food sector, according to the company’s management, RAR is expanding foreign sales of its products. Still one of the leading fruit producers, it has added cheese, sparkling wine, olive oil and cheese to its menu, as well as charcuterie.

The first malbec Miolo Wine Group puts its first wine on the market with Malbec grape, grown in the Gaúcha Campaign, in the Pampa biome.

The first Malbec 2 The biome where Brazilian grape production is located begins in Argentina, covers almost the entire Uruguayan territory and has a temperate climate. It is a region in which the Malbec variety has been gaining new areas.