Uncertainties about Petrobras’ next steps undermine receipt of balance sheet and expressive dividends – 03/02/2023 – Market

Petrobras shares showed weakness this Thursday (2), despite the record result in 2022 and the announcement of robust dividends, since uncertainties persist related to the next steps of the state oil company, after the change of government in Brazil.

At 3:10 pm, the preferred shares retreated 0.91%, to R$ 25.07, having already fluctuated between the minimum of R$ 24.37 and the maximum of R$ 25.67. Ordinary shares yielded 0.87%, at R$ 28.5. At the same time, the Ibovespa had a negative variation of 0.09%.

The company recorded net income of BRL 43.34 billion in the fourth quarter, up 37.6% compared to the same period of the previous year and above expectations by analysts, accumulating a record net profit of BRL 188.3 billion in 2022 in 2022, up 77% compared to the previous year, according to data on the eve.

The board of directors also approved the submission to the General Shareholders’ Meeting, scheduled for April 27, of the proposed distribution of dividends equivalent to R$ 2.745 gross per preferred and common share in circulation, in a total of R$ 35.8 billion.

But, citing that the proposed amount exceeds the application of the formula provided for in the Remuneration Policy by R$ 6.5 billion in the quarter, the board suggested that shareholders evaluate the creation of a Statutory Reserve to retain up to R$ 6.5 billion from result of the 2022 fiscal year.

“This quarter’s focus has been on dividends… And while a bit noisy, we believe the dividend outcome was benign,” analysts at JPMorgan said. They pondered, however, that the discussion on the subject is not over yet and saw the reserve suggestion as a noise.

Even so, Rodolfo Angele and team assessed that there seems to be a willingness to pay at least the minimum dividend, “which means that everything is happening within the rules, which is obviously positive”, according to a report to clients.

Bradesco BBI analysts, in turn, stated that the key question is whether this dividend proposal will actually be paid, since the government has the power to veto any payment at the meeting to be held at the end of April. They see stocks falling heavily on a move in that direction.

“The repercussions of this proposed dividend within the government, the Workers’ Party and the media will be the first major series of events to be monitored,” they said.

“After that, the next important steps to be monitored will be the proposed changes to the dividend policy by the new management, to be considered by the new board probably in May”, they added, citing possible changes in the bylaws pricing policy.

After the release of the balance sheet and the announcement of dividends, GoldmanSachs analysts reaffirmed the “neutral” recommendation for the shares (the same classification adopted by analysts at JPMorgan and Bradesco BBI).

“Despite the relatively cheap ‘valuation’… we recognize the increasing uncertainty about the policies to be adopted in the coming years”, stated Bruno Amorim and team in a report to clients late on Wednesday.

The president of the state-owned company, Jean Paul Prates, said this Thursday in a videoconference with analysts that Petrobras will still be robust in paying dividends to its shareholders in 2023, but that the challenges to be faced will be even greater.

“There are different circumstances, it is a greater challenge, not least because we are not necessarily going to sell assets due to government decisions as was done before, we are not going to get rid of refineries or entire regions simply because the government wants it”, said the executive.

Shortly after Prates’ speech, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva reacted against the distribution of dividends announced the day before by Petrobras.

Lula said, at the launch ceremony of the new Bolsa Família program, at the Planalto Palace, that one cannot “accept the idea of ​​today’s news” that Petrobras delivered dividends of more than R$ 215 billion, amounts referring to the 2022 financial year. .

The amount announced by Petrobras as dividends for the fourth quarter exceeds the market value of a number of companies listed on B3, including CPFL Energia (R$ 34.7 billion), Klabin (R$ 22.1 billion), Magazine Luiza (R$21.8 billion) and Embraer (R$12.5 billion).