Trump, Milei, mayors and Brazil – 01/04/2024 – Vinicius Torres Freire

This 2024 should be a lukewarm economy in Brazil and the world and hot politics for many.

Donald Trump could become US president again, if he is not prevented from running for office, which would also be very relevant.

Increasingly Mussolinian or, better yet, more Putinian, he is more capable and determined to manipulate the “system” and defeat the “deep state” that, he says, prevented him from restoring American greatness. The election will simmer all year, given the judicial outcome; the primaries begin in January.

With regard to the interests of the Brazilian public, the choice of the American president should be the most eye-catching. It must be a definition that can change the direction of the winds and perceptions of Brazilian political elites.

It is more than reckless speculation to say that victories by authoritarian demagogues will influence the electorate, without more. But there are usually contagions and inspirations in the political world.

For some 60 years, Argentina and Brazil carried out similar economic experiments, often similar in their mistakes, and carefully observed successes and many disasters in their neighbors.

We had warlord dictators, military dictatorships, developmentalism, debt crises and more or less contemporary liberaloid reversals.

Not by chance, the similarity in the adventures made the phrase inspired by drink advertising common, that of the “Orloff effect”: “I am you tomorrow”.

It stopped being that much at the end of the 1990s, with the relative economic and political stabilization of Brazil. Put yourself “relative” on that, fine. But the comparison, in this case, is with Argentina.

Argentina is interested because of Javier Milei, of course, the most recent and noisy offspring of the “anti-system” demagoguery that has been plaguing the world since the middle of the last decade. It is very difficult to make a reasonable, considered and objective analysis of what your destiny could be, especially because Milei is not considered or reasonable.

His government project is so far an improvised mess, with an authoritarian flavor and uncertain implementation.

However, Milei inspires comparisons with Jair Bolsonaro; Bolsonarism and Brazilian libertarianism were encouraged by the victory of the dog’s libertarianism in Argentina. His government’s destiny, which will become evident in 2024, will give food for thought to Brazil’s political and economic leadership.

This 2024 is also the year of municipal elections in Brazil. In each round of choosing mayors, one hears the cliché about the supposed irrelevance of the political balance of this election to the presidential contest, two years later, and things like that.

Any attentive observer, however, will notice how much the victories in the cities say about the country’s political configuration, about underwater currents or ideological airs, about the effect of institutional changes.

Note the spread of the centrão, of conservatisms and of reactionaries in the 2020 municipal election, almost replicated in the 2022 Congressional election, which sets the tone for institutional change (advancement of parliamentary power, of the right) and important limits to Lula 3.

Municipalities, Trump and Milei should have the biggest impact on the Brazilian political climate, it seems obvious. But there will be other elections that may enter the conversation.

In October, there is something similar to an election for president in Venezuela. Also in October, the left could return to power in Uruguay.

Despite the fiction that is the idea of ​​Latin America, we pay very little attention to Mexico. Of greater interest is that, in June, Mexicans are expected to elect a woman as president, for the first time.

Government member Claudia Sheinbaum, an environmentalist, slightly left-wing, is the favorite against the second option, for now, Bertha Xóchitl Galvez, from the center-right, of indigenous origin.

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