Treasury revises GDP growth projection from 1.9% to 2.5% in 2023

The Ministry of Finance revised the growth projection for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023 from 1.9% to 2.5%. The Secretariat for Economic Policy (SPE) of the portfolio released this Wednesday (19) the new estimate. The SPE maintained its projection of 2.3% GDP growth for 2024.

In the second half of this year, the expectation is for GDP growth of 2.7%, in the interannual variation. The portfolio estimates that in the second quarter, compared to the first, there may be a retraction in the agricultural sector, a slowdown in services and a slight improvement in industry, informed Valor Econômico.

According to STE, among the factors for the upward revision of economic growth in 2023 is the GDP result in the first quarter and the possibility of a drop in interest rates.

The ministry also revised the projection for inflation measured by the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in 2023, which was from 5.58% (in May) to 4.85%. The estimate for 2024 increased from 3.63% (May) to 3.30%.

The projection for the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) this year was 4.48% against the 5.34% projected in May. As for 2024, the INPC estimate is 3.01% against the 3.44% projected in May.