Tragedy on the north coast reminds us of the need to change our stance on climate change – 02/22/2023 – Why? Economês in good Portuguese

In recent years we have experienced a significant increase in extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are all meteorological and climatological phenomena in large proportions, such as high temperatures, frost accompanied by snowfall, long periods of drought, heavy rain and floods such as the recent rains on the north coast of São Paulo, which caused hundreds of deaths. and other emotional and financial losses.

One of the causes of these events is the increase in the temperature of the planet due to the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Since the pre-industrial period, the temperature on Earth has increased by about 1.1 degrees Celsius. The safe limit for global warming according to science is to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.

The consequences are stronger and more frequent extreme weather events. Today, half the world’s population faces water insecurity at least one month each year. Since 2008, catastrophic floods and storms have forced more than 20 million people a year from their homes.

A World Bank study estimates that around 17 million climate migrants will leave Latin America by 2050 to flee extreme weather events. IPCC estimates show that an increase of 1.5 degrees would put 14% of the earth’s biodiversity at risk. About 1 billion people in arid zones would be exposed to water stress, heat and desertification.

To ensure food security, about US$ 63 billion would be needed with adaptation and residual damage to agricultural crops. Fires in Southern Europe would increase by about 55%. We would have 58% more days with a temperature greater than 35 degrees Celsius. We would lose between 70% and 90% of existing corals and reefs.

With rising sea levels and heavy rainfall, the global population exposed to severe flooding would increase by about 24%. The IPCC estimates that over the next decade alone, climate change will push between 32 million and 132 million people into extreme poverty.

Climate change will also increase the incidence of heart disease, mental health difficulties and heat-related deaths. Inequalities increase vulnerability to climate hazards, giving rise to what we call environmental injustice. Human settlements in wetlands and coastal areas promote the degradation of ecosystems that would otherwise help protect neighborhoods near these areas from sea level rise, storm surges and flooding.

Alarming, but it can get worse. A new 2022 climate study by the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) points out that there is a 50% chance that the rise in global average temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius over the next five years with even more severe impacts on the environment, socioeconomic development, on people’s health and well-being.

In this context, mitigation and adaptation measures are crucial to reverse temperature rise and protect ecosystems and people. Mitigation refers to reducing GHG emissions to avoid or reduce climate change. In Brazil, given our emissions pattern, it means reducing deforestation and investing in more sustainable agricultural practices.

Adaptation measures seek to reduce harmful effects, vulnerabilities, in addition to exploring possible opportunities for improvement, such as the creation and investment in social programs that promote equity and climate justice, improvements in infrastructure and basic services, such as housing, especially for populations with higher incomes. casualties, sanitation and health. Protection, restoration and sustainable management of ecosystems in collaboration with indigenous peoples and local communities and investment in new technologies.

Adaptation is necessary regardless of how much we can reduce emissions given historical emissions. Ideally, there should be synergy between mitigation and adaptation actions to achieve efficiency while generating social benefits. This requires coordinated action by governments, organizations and citizen-consumers with science at the center of strategic decision-making for the country’s development.

I write this text for the families and friends who lost loved ones in the north coast tragedy. May this tragedy not be forgotten or become another statistic. May the next tragedy not be necessary for us to increase investments and efforts in the short and long term in adaptation and mitigation measures. This requires behavior change from everyone.

I end with an excerpt from the famous Earth Charter to remind you that change is in our hands. “…may our time be remembered for the awakening of a new reverence for life, for the unwavering commitment to achieving sustainability, for intensifying the struggle for justice and peace, and for the joyous celebration of life.”

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