The drop in interest rates for companies and families will be gradual

The chief economist at Nomad and professor at the Faculty of Economics and Administration at the University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), Danilo Igliori, points out that the reduction in interest rates should start in the modalities that present guarantees, such as payroll loans and mortgage loans real estate and cars.

Emergency lines, such as credit card and overdraft, should be the last to have reduced rates, he says. In June, according to data from the Central Bank, the average revolving credit card rate for individuals was, in June, at 15.04% per month. That of the check, at 7.33%.

The National Association of Finance, Administration and Accounting Executives (Anefac) calculates that, with the new Selic rate, a person who buys a refrigerator for BRL 2,000 and divides the amount into 12 installments will pay installments of BRL 402.76 – before the cut, the value would be R$ 405.91.

Banks should also use interest rate reductions on credit lines as a marketing tool, says Nomad’s chief economist. He points out that lower interest rates are one of the weapons to try to capture customers in the midst of a scenario of growing bank competition.

Default and “American effect” should delay the effect of the Selic drop

Two factors that should hinder a more rapid reduction in interest rates for the borrower, according to Igliori, are the high indebtedness of families and companies and the effects on corporate credit caused by the episode of Lojas Americanas, whose deficit exceeds R$ 40 billion, according to auditors.

“Perhaps the most important factor [para os juros elevados] whether even defaults, which are much higher among individuals than companies, which also explains the electoral appeal that proposals for reducing defaults have on most voters”, says Shikida.

Until June, before the launch of the Desenrola program for debt renegotiation, 71.45 million individuals had the “dirty name”, according to Serasa. This is equivalent to 43.78% of the adult population. More than 6.5 million companies, mainly micro and small, faced credit restrictions.

The Millenium specialist is also concerned about the possibility that some unexpected change in the national or international scenario will contribute to interrupting the cycle of falling interest rates. “For example, in case the fiscal framework turns out to be just rhetoric or if there is some other unwanted development of the aggression initiated by the Russian government against the Ukrainian people”, he says.