Selic: see profitability of fixed income with interest at 13.75% – 06/21/2023 – Market

With the decision of the BC (Central Bank) to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75% per year this Wednesday (21), incentivized infrastructure debentures emerge as the investment with the highest real return among the main financial investments of income fixed, according to a survey by investment search platform Yubb.

According to the study, incentive debentures, debt securities issued by companies to finance large infrastructure works that offer exemption from IR (Income Tax) to individuals, should deliver a real return of 9.93% in a 12-month window . To arrive at the result, the survey considered an inflation of 5.12% projected by Focus for 2023.

Following among the highest returns estimated by the platform, come the LCIs (Real Estate Letters of Credit) and LCAs (Agribusiness Letters of Credit), which also have tax exemption, with real yields of 8.24% and 7.85% , respectively.

“It is interesting to continue looking for opportunities in fixed income, given that the Selic rate is quite high, even though it is not possible to find the same rates that were available in early 2023”, says Bernardo Pascowitch, founder of Yubb.

At the opposite end, savings appear among the applications with the lowest real yield among the main alternatives considered in the survey.

Even with the IR exemption, savings should deliver a real return, discounted for inflation, of just 3.19% in a one-year window, shows the Yubb study.

Despite the increase in the Selic rate, which rose from the historic low of 2% in March 2021 to the current 13.75%, the application of the passbook continues with the yield unchanged at 6.17% per year, plus the TR (Referential Rate ), which is at 2.2% in 12 months, resulting in a gross return of approximately 8.5%.

Savings remuneration is 0.5% per month whenever the Selic rate is above 8.5% per year. When the basic rate is up to 8.5%, the savings yield is equivalent to 70% of the Selic rate.

In any case, with the increase in the TR boosting savings gains, the traditional application left the spotlight among the main investment alternatives, surpassing the CDBs of the large banks, which are taxed and deliver a net return of 2.92% on average , according to the survey.

Partner at the investment office HCI Invest and financial planner at Planejar, Luccas Fioreli says that, with the prospect of a fall in the Selic ahead, products that follow the trajectory of the CDI tend to gradually lose appeal.

In a scenario of lower interest rates, alternatives that assume a higher level of risk, in order to seek a greater gain than the Selic for investors, should gain space in the portfolio, says Fioreli, who cites stock funds and multimarkets among the main options that have indicated to customers.

The specialist points out, however, that before moving on to riskier assets, investors need to be clear about their appetite for increasing the level of volatility in their portfolios, to avoid situations in which they want to withdraw money at the first bump in the stock market.

“Regardless of whether the Selic is high or low, the first thing is to understand each one’s appetite for risk”, says Fioreli, adding that, even with the prospect of a drop in the rate, returns on fixed income should remain at an attractive level around two digits for a long time yet —in Focus, projections indicate the basic interest rate at 12.25% in December 2023.

Despite investors’ expectations about the beginning of the Selic reduction cycle, in the statement released alongside the decision this Wednesday, the Central Bank’s Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) did not signal a decline ahead and reiterated that the situation demands “patience and serenity “. The monetary authority said that it “evaluates that the strategy of maintaining the basic interest rate for a prolonged period has proved adequate to ensure the convergence of inflation”.

In any case, the BC collegiate slightly softened the tone of its communiqué and discarded the message that spoke about the possibility of raising the Selic rate again if the disinflation process did not go as expected. At the previous meeting, he had already added that it was a less likely scenario.

Analyst at Toro Investimentos, Paloma Brum says that, considering the scenario that the Selic rate will remain at a still high level in the coming months, the allocation in post-fixed fixed income remains the main recommendation for clients.

“We are not going to see the Selic below 10% this year, so investments in fixed income, especially linked to the CDI, remain attractive”, says the specialist, who sees a good opportunity at this moment offered by prefixed assets, which allow the investor ” stop” a return higher than what should be the basic interest rate in effect at the end of the year and in 2024.

The Toro analyst also claims that she has promoted a gradual increase in the recommendation of allocation in stocks and real estate funds to those investors with a greater appetite for risk. “The Selic fall scenario is super favorable to the variable income market”, says Paloma. She claims that the market will not wait for the effective drop in interest rates to mount positions in the riskiest segments of the market.