See stock exchange and dollar quotes today – 04/11/2023 – Market

The dollar opened lower after the release of official inflation for March in Brazil. The IPCA was pressured by gasoline in March, but slowed down to 0.71%, below economists’ expectations, which were 0.77%.

Investors are also waiting for an important reading of US inflation to be published on Wednesday (12), which may offer clues about the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory (Federal Reserve, the US BC).

At 9:47 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar retreated 0.43%, to R$ 5.0440 in the sale.

On B3, at 9:47 am (Brasília time), the first contract dollar futures contract fell 0.57%, to R$ 5.0580.

The Stock Exchange closed higher this Monday (10), on the return of the Easter holiday, against the indices in New York. Performance is boosted by companies producing raw materials, such as Petrobras and Vale, with improved prospects for the global economy, especially in China.

The Ibovespa ended the day up 1.01%, at 101,846 points. The spot commercial dollar rose 0.13% to R$5.066. At the maximum of the day, the American currency reached R$ 5.09. The real performed better than the average of other international currencies. The DXY index, which compares the dollar to globally relevant currencies, was up 0.72% at 5:30 pm (Brasília time)

In the interest market, rates showed moderate declines. For January 2024, rates increased from 13.25% at the close of last Thursday (6) to 13.22%. In January 2025 contracts, the rate dropped from 12.03% to 11.98%. For January 2027, interest rates increased from 11.98% to 11.96%.

Petrobras’ common and preferred shares rose 2.65% and 2.33%, respectively. Vale’s common stock closed up 1.90%. Steelmakers also showed important advances. CSN’s common stock rose 3.77%, and Usiminas’ class A preferred stock rose 3.56%. Gerdau’s preferred stock closed with an advance of 2.96%.

Matheus Spiess, an analyst at Empiricus Research, recalls that the shares of Petrobras and Vale together account for almost 30% of the performance of the Ibovespa. “They end up boosting the index, even with a less favorable external scenario”, says Spiess.

These companies are very sensitive to news coming out of China. This beginning of the week, signs were given that the country’s economy is in a more accelerated process of recovery, after the restrictions imposed by the government to combat the Covid-19 pandemic.

World Bank President David Malpass said on Monday the institution had slightly revised its 2023 global growth outlook to 2% from a January forecast of 1.7%.

Malpass told the press that the upward revision was due to a better outlook for China’s recovery, with growth now estimated at 5.1% for this year, up from 4.3% in January.

Another piece of news that directly affects Brazilian companies, especially Vale and steelmakers, reports the drop in steel inventories in China, according to the Bloomberg agency. That caused the iron ore traded in Singapore to rise 1% on Monday, after a sequence of seven declines.

China’s steel inventories fell 9% in March, according to information from an association of Chinese mining and steel companies. According to the entity, there is a growing demand coming from the infrastructure and construction segments.

In Brazil, the expectation of sending the new fiscal framework to Congress continues. Investors also react to the interview given by the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, to Sheet.

The minister intends to carry out, before the end of this year, a review of the norms for the growth of mandatory expenses and budget constraints (those that are linked to a floor or also to the growth of revenues).

In addition to the minimum wage readjustment rule, the readjustment of civil servants’ wages and floors and links to health and education, for example, must be in question.

Regarding the new fiscal framework, the government will send the project to Congress along with the 2024 LDO (Budget Guidelines Law), Minister Haddad said this Monday.

The deadline for the government to deliver the LDO project to the Legislative, with the budget assumptions for the following year, is April 15. Therefore, the text can be sent with the proposed fiscal framework until next Friday (14).

The leader of the government in Congress, Senator Randolfe Rodrigues (Rede-AP), said this Monday that the new fiscal rule will be forwarded by the economic team to Congress by the end of this week.

For Rodrigo Cohen, investment analyst and co-founder of Escola de Investimentos, he points to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (PT) conviction regarding the approval of the new fiscal rules by Congress as something that pleased the market this Monday.

“Due to the trip to China, it is possible that we will have an anticipation of the presentation of the framework to Congress. With that, the market is encouraged by virtue of a definition of the next steps of our economic policy”, says Cohen.

In the United States, the market continued to react to data on the labor market, released last Friday (7), with considerable fluctuation. At the close, stock indices closed closer to stability.

The US Department of Labor report recorded the opening of 236,000 jobs in March, a pace that is considered strong. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 239,000 job openings.

As a result, economists are virtually certain of another 0.25 percentage point increase in US interest rates at the next meeting of the Fed (Federal Reserve, the US central bank), in May.

But with the job market still heated, it is more difficult to lower inflation. The prospect is that, in this scenario, interest rates will remain high for longer in the United States.

In New York, the Dow Jones index closed up 0.30%. The S&P 500 Index was up 0.10%, and the Nasdaq ended virtually flat, down 0.03%.