More expensive orange and fruit juices: understand what has raised prices

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Stocks of the Brazilian drink face the worst volume since June 2011, the beginning of the historical series of the exporters association (CitrusBR). Orange prices rise for the industry and consumers. Orange: fruit juice can bring health benefits. Sheraz Shaikh / Unsplash The world is facing an orange juice shortage. Brazil, the largest producer of the drink, has the lowest stock in the historical series made by the National Association of Citrus Juice Exporters (CitrusBR), started in June 2011. Currently, there are 84,745 tons of juice stored by members, 40% less than compared to last year. Most of what is produced in this sector in Brazil goes for export. Still, competition between the industry and the consumer for oranges increases the price of the fruit, explains Fernanda Geraldini, fruit researcher on the fruit and vegetable team at the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea/Esalq – USP). The August Consumer Price Index (IPCA) showed that fruit juices (no breakdown by flavor is made) became 10% more expensive. The price of pear oranges, the most popular, rose 9% in the same period. Limes were the most expensive: 17%. And, for the industry, the fruit is not cheaper either. In September, pear oranges became 16.6% more expensive compared to the same month in 2022, according to data from Cepea. Why is orange missing? This scenario is caused by difficulties in producing oranges, caused by two factors: climate change and “greening”, a disease that affects orchards and reduces the quality and productivity of the fruit. ‘Greening’: understand the disease These problems are not only affecting Brazilian production, but also that of the United States, which is also a protagonist in this cultivation. The country also has the worst volume of oranges since the beginning of the country’s Department of Agriculture (USDA) historical series. Before production began to fall due to “greening”, in the 2011/2012 harvest the USA ranked second in orange juice production in the world, second only to Brazil. Today, the North Americans are in third place, also behind Mexico. In addition to Brazil and the United States, Mexico and Spain have faced severe droughts and crop reductions, while experiencing strong demand for oranges in their fresh fruit markets. Read also: Orange tree loses ‘childhood’ so fruit reaches the table healthier and faster; see video Tangerine is the ‘mother’ of the orange and its name is often used in vain… discover interesting facts about the fruit The advancement of ‘greening’ Greening is caused by a fungus that affects the feet that are still developing and they are new to the orchards, explains the president of the Brazilian Table Citrus Association (ABCM), Antonio Simonetti. The disease causes the fruit to become small and fall prematurely. As a result, producers depend on older trees, which already have low productivity due to their age. Brazil has faced this problem before, but, according to Simonetti, the insects that spread the disease are resistant to the pesticides that already exist to combat the pest, which makes the fight difficult, which becomes dependent on the development of new varieties of oranges and pesticides. . As a result, many producers are giving up oranges and starting other crops, such as corn, or even moving to regions where the fruit is not yet widely planted, areas without the spread of “greening”. But disease is not the only problem oranges face. Climate instability is also contributing to the numbers. Unseasonably high temperatures, when the fruit is developing, also cause the orange to fall off the tree prematurely, says the president of ABCM. Irregular rains also hamper crop development. In the United States, there are still cyclones that hit Florida, explains Geraldini from Cepea. FIND OUT ALSO: ‘orange’ was once called ‘naranga’ and only became a color long after the fruit Competition for orange With fewer oranges harvested, the industry starts to compete with supermarkets and fairs for the table product, the one that is grown for consumption at home, making the fruit more expensive, says Simonetti. “There are few producers who want to supply the supermarket because of the requirement for fruit size and quality,” he says. He states that supermarkets pay less and return fruit when its appearance is not perfect, as this is important to the consumer. For making juice, those with defects can also be used. And, even with all these problems, Brazilian demand for oranges remains high, which helps reduce stocks, highlights Felippe Serigati, from the Agribusiness Center at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV Agro). SEE ALSO: lemon helped save the orange crop from a virus called ‘sadness’ Will it get better? For the price of oranges and juice to improve in Brazil, it is necessary to increase the global supply, to reduce competition for the fruit. For Serigati, the improvement in stocks depends on what the next harvests in the United States will be like. This is because, with the country’s recovery, there would be more oranges on the market. However, the researcher remembers that oranges are a permanent crop, that is, they are not planted every harvest, but are fixed orchards that bear fruit in cycles. As a result, fruit production may take longer to recover. But Brazil also has an important role in this recovery, points out Cepea researcher Geraldini. And the improvement in inventory will depend on the weather, whether the country will maintain high levels of sales, preventing the increase in inventories and whether “greening” will continue to advance. “The only thing we can probably guarantee is that it won’t be next year,” she says. For her, the United States will hardly have major production again. This is because, for some years, the country has suffered from a fall in harvest, as the decline has been ongoing since the 2018/19 harvest. See what orange production is like in Brazil Where does what I eat come from: oranges Pera, lime and bay: see the differences between oranges Pera, lime and bay: see the differences between oranges Learn the difference between tangerine and tangerine in VIDEO: Where tangerines come from Meeting tangerines helps explain differences between types of fruit

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