Market starts to see Selic lower in 2024, at 9% – 12/26/2023 – Market

Analysts consulted by the Central Bank began to see the basic interest rate lower in 2024, at the same time as they reduced the prospects for inflation, according to the Focus survey released this Tuesday (26).

The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, showed that the expectation now is that the Selic will end 2024 at 9.0%, after seven weeks calculating the rate at 9.25% at the end of the rate cut period. fees.

The Selic ends 2023 at 11.75% after the Central Bank promoted the fourth consecutive cut of 0.5 percentage points at the beginning of this month, stating that its board foresees cuts of the same intensity in the next meetings.

In relation to inflation, experts reduced for the third time in a row the projection for the rise in the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) this year, now calculated at 4.46%, from 4.49% before, therefore below the inflation ceiling. goal.

For 2024, the adjustment was 0.02 percentage points downwards, to 3.91%, while for the following two years the experts consulted continue to see inflation of 3.5%.

The center of the official target for inflation in 2023 is 3.25% and for 2024, 2025 and 2026 it is 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.

For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the growth estimate for this year remains at 2.92%, and for 2024 it rose 0.01 point, to 1.52%.