Ibovespa is falling, with higher-than-expected job openings in the US; dollar has fallen

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The day before, the stock exchange’s main stock index advanced 0.10%, to 132,834 points. The North American currency remained stable at R$4.9150. Illustrative image about the rise of the dollar and the stock market on the São Paulo Stock Exchange (B3). KEVIN DAVID/A7 PRESS/ESTADÃO CONTÚDO Ibovespa, the main stock index on the stock exchange, is falling this Thursday (4), with job vacancy data higher than expected by the financial market in the United States. The dollar closed falling. Investors have been cautious in 2024, worried about the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed, US central bank) will start to make cuts in the basic interest rate this year and how quickly they can be implemented. (read more below). See below for a summary of the markets. Dollar The dollar closed down 0.15%, quoted at R$4.9074. See more quotes. The day before, the American currency closed stable, sold at R$4.9150. For the week, the increase is 1.13%. In 2023, however, the year ended with a decline of 8.06%. The historic high of the American currency was on May 13, 2020, when it cost R$5.9007. Since then, it has already accumulated a drop of almost 18%. See the final balance sheet for 2023 below. drop of 0.17% in the week; decline of 1.28% in the month; loss of 8.06% in the year. Ibovespa At 5pm, Ibovespa had fallen 1.18%, to 131,266 points. The day before, the index rose 0.10%, to 132,834 points. For the week, the drop is 2.17%. Last year, the stock exchange closed with a gain of more than 22.28%. In annual terms, this is the best result since 2019, when the index had an accumulated increase of 31.58%. See the final balance sheet for 2023 below. increase of 1.08% in the week; gain of 5.38% in the month; increase of 22.28% in the year. READ ALSO CASH OR CARD? What is the best way to take dollars when traveling? DOLLAR: When is the best time to buy the currency? Understand what makes the dollar rise or fall What moved the markets? Markets ended yesterday still cautious, with agents evaluating clues regarding the direction of interest rates in the United States. The Fed minutes offered new insights, with policymakers appearing increasingly convinced that inflation is coming under control. Although they cited the reduction of “bullish risks” and concerns about the damage that an “overly restrictive” monetary policy could cause to the economy, little light was shed on when interest rate cuts might begin. While the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged in January, investors have priced in a 67% chance of a 0.25 percentage point cut in borrowing costs in March, according to the CME group’s FedWatch tool. “We see the minutes, the Fed’s official communication and recent data – which show economic activity gradually slowing and inflation falling but still above target – as consistent with cautious monetary easing starting in the second quarter of this year,” he says XP Investimentos report. This morning, the results of the ADP survey of job creation in the US private sector were released. Private sector employers hired more workers than expected in December, indicating persistent strength in the labor market. 164,000 jobs were opened in the US private sector last month, the highest monthly reading since August. Economists consulted by Reuters expected 115,000 jobs to be created in December. November’s data was revised slightly downward, showing 101,000 open jobs instead of 103,000 as previously reported. New unemployment claims fell more than expected last week, suggesting that labor market conditions remain quite tight. Initial jobless claims fell 18,000 in the week ended December 30 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000. Economists consulted by Reuters predicted 216,000 applications for the last week. Data tends to be volatile at this time of year because of holidays. “The results leave the market very doubtful about the US interest rate cuts in March. I believe it is a little early. With this doubt, there is the increase in American Treasuries and this calibration of markets here and abroad”, says Paulo Gala , chief economist at Banco Master. But the great expectations are for the main indicator of the week, the US non-agricultural employment report (“payroll”), which is one of the most analyzed by the Fed and will give more indications of the country’s economic situation on Friday. Economists expect 168,000 jobs to be created, according to a Reuters survey, after an increase of 199,000 in November. The predicted number is below the average monthly gain of 240,000 over the last 12 months, but well above the approximately 100,000 needed per month to keep up with the growth of the working-age population. Thus, the forecast is that the unemployment rate will rise to 3.8%, from 3.7% in November.

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