How Lula can deal with white right-wing parliamentarianism – 04/15/2023 – Vinicius Torres Freire

Finally, we realized that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) will have the usual problems of any government to form some kind of coalition in Congress. Lula will have the usual problems and the most recent ones, as they are not new: they are the result of a transformation that has been ongoing since 2013 and in forced march since 2018.

The formation of two blocks of parties in the Chamber made a certain impression and inflamed the discussion of what Lula 3 will be in Parliament. The creation of these groups, of 173 and 142 deputies each, does not necessarily mean that the government will have more or less opposition. It means that the government has less and less influence on the organization of alliances in a Congress with more and more power since 2015.

The second alert came from the public wave of demands and criticism from parliamentarians, now that the first decisive votes are approaching. On the verge of these important decisions, there is still a lack of distribution of positions, there is a demand for redistribution of resources between ministries and there is a request for government support for the occupation of positions in commissions and rapporteurs.

Last week, there was a general outcry, see the reaction to the government’s changes in the sanitation law, attacks on the tax plan (“reonerations”), demands from state companies, Funasa, Conab and the devil.

All of this is the bread and butter of the coalition business. But dealing with such matters in the new configuration of Congress is more difficult.

It is no coincidence that, since 2016, we have resorted to expressions such as “white parliamentarianism”, “semi-parliamentaryism” and “parliamentary” (or “coup”) or heard proposals for “semi-presidentialism” (Michel Temer). The terms poorly describe the correct impression that Congress commands more, can more, and wants more.

The center-right Congress deposed Dilma Rousseff, started the agreement to contain the anti-corruption movement and attracted liberals in economics but boçais in politics. This group led the government in which Michel Temer occupied the role of both Prime Minister and King of England. In the people of Arthur Lira and Rodrigo Pacheco, he was the regent of Jair Bolsonaro, busy with the coup.

All this is known, but still poorly thought out. Also known is the end of the 1994-2014 party system, organized by the PT and the PSDB. The rise of the negotiating center parties to the position of major forces in Congress is evident, as well as the righting of Parliament, in particular in 2022, or of city halls (see 2020). Sometimes, one gets the impression that the Chamber and city halls are transformed into notary offices for caciques, clans and regional elites, that gray mass of centrão that rules politics.

Counting parties allied in the election with those holding ministries, Lula would have 283 votes in the Chamber. This account is always bad, as there are recalcitrants in the coalition and votes to acquire in the opposition. But there is a party with a lot of ministry (União Brasil) that does not claim to be pro-government nor can it be (because it is full of Bolsonaristas). On the other hand, the opposition or the non-government supporters are disoriented: it is not known who adheres to Lula or stays in the right-wing boat, towards 2024 and 2026.

For the rest, although the parties are increasingly bureaucratic machines of regional oligarchies (and of pastors, farmers and military), with no other major social articulation, these organizations are more “liberal” or extreme right. Problem to the left.

Finally, there are fewer resources to acquire retail support. There are fewer positions in state-owned companies (perhaps this is also why the government wants to deal with this). Congress has more liquid and certain resources. The Federal Budget has less free money.

It’s not an easy situation to resolve.

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