High interest rates favor Direct Treasury, say specialists – 03/05/2023 – Market

With the expectation of financial agents that interest rates will remain at a high level for a long time to come, experts consider that the hefty remuneration of public securities traded on the Treasury Direct represents a very attractive opportunity for anyone looking for low-risk alternatives with a Affordable amount to invest.

Among the public bonds indexed to inflation available on the platform, which offer a fixed rate plus the variation of the IPCA price index (National Index of Broad Consumer Prices), the real interest rate is negotiated above 6% and reaches two digits between fixed rates —which have a nominal interest rate— and post-fixed rates that follow the Selic rate.

Yields on sovereign risk reached current levels in mid-2022, amid uncertainty about the elections, and have remained relatively stable since then, given the uncertainty over the government’s fiscal policy.

Before that, the remuneration of public bonds was at the same level only in 2016, at the time of the Dilma Rousseff government, when the rates of inflation-indexed papers reached around 7%.

Advisors at investment offices indicate a preference for post-fixed Treasury Selic bonds to keep those short-term funds destined for the emergency reserve, which the investor may need to withdraw at any time.

It is an option with an attractive rate compared to the Selic rate of 13.75% per annum, and, among the Direct Treasury bonds, it is the one with the lowest risk of the investor suffering some type of loss in the event of a sale before the maturity date. , says Paula Bento, partner at HCI Invest and CFP financial planner for Planejar.

“With the Selic rate at current levels, having a fixed income investment with profitability linked to this rate, with daily liquidity and low risk, is quite attractive.”

Simulations on the site of the Direct Treasury carried out on Friday (3) show that, by investing BRL 1,000.00 in the Treasury Selic bond with a final term in March 2026, the investor will have a net value of BRL 1,284.75 at maturity , already deducting the IR (Income Tax) corresponding to the period and the B3 custody fee.

If the investor has the financial stamina to keep the money invested for a longer time, advisors say that inflation-indexed bonds are the most recommended, as they offer protection against possible inflationary pressure in the coming years, in addition to being at the moment with a rate real interest rates at a historically high level.

Calculations by the partner of Messem Investimentos, Diego d’Arrigo, indicate that, in the interval between 2003 and 2022, the real interest rate practiced in the Brazilian market was 5%, on average, with the current level above 6% representing, therefore, a opportunity for investors to guarantee a return above inflation in a medium to long-term window.

In addition, a survey by Infinity Asset and MoneYou indicates that Brazil currently has the highest real interest rate compared to 40 countries, with a rate of 7.38% per year. To arrive at this result, the future interest rate projected by financial agents due in January 2024 and the expected inflation for the next 12 months are considered.

According to the study, Mexico (5.53%), Chile (4.71%), Colombia (3.04%) and Hong Kong (2.35%) follow.

“Brazil currently has one of the highest real interest rates in the world, which ends up opening up many opportunities in the Direct Treasury”, says d’Arrigo. “We had levels similar to what we have today close to Dilma’s impeachment”, adds the advisor to Messem.

In his assessment, however, the current economic scenario is not as adverse as it was at the end of Dilma’s term, with bond rates at levels similar to those prevailing when the country was in crisis, but we are not in one right now.

The expert points out that if the investor has to sell the security before the maturity date, there is a risk of suffering a loss, depending on market conditions at the time of sale. However, if the security is loaded until maturity, the application will remunerate exactly the rate that was contracted.

Treasury Direct simulations indicate that an investment of R$ 1,000.00 in the Treasury IPCA+ 2035 security will result in a net value of R$ 2,897.82 at maturity.

In the case of fixed-rate securities, although the double-digit nominal return draws attention, specialists point out that they are the most sensitive to daily fluctuations in the interest rate market. Therefore, if the BC (Central Bank) has to promote new increases in the Selic rate, or even if future interest rates rise in a market stress scenario, prefixed securities will tend to be the most affected in comparison with peers.

“We think it makes sense to allocate a small percentage to prefixed securities, but there is risk, so we prefer short maturities, two or three years at the most”, says Carolina Taira, manager at B.Side Investimentos.

Americanas case scares investors and reinforces demand for government bonds

According to investment advisors, the case of Americanas, which filed for judicial recovery after disclosing a debt of nearly R$50 billion, sparked an alert among investors, who were more apprehensive about investing in debt securities issued by companies. .

As a result, government bonds gained even more prominence on the radar of those looking for fixed-income options to compose their portfolio.

Paula Bento, from HCI, says that part of the resources that investors held in private debt securities was migrated to securities such as the Selic Treasury.

“The problem with Americanas made the market more cautious and we observed some redemptions in private credit funds, precisely because the investor has other options in which he manages to have a good return”, says the financial planner.

“As the year started in a troubled way in the private credit market with the case of Americanas, we perceived customers with a little fear, with a demand turned to more conservative alternatives”, says Carolina, from B.Side.

The manager says that it has favored mainly inflation-indexed bonds, which, in her assessment, tend to do well regardless of the scenario ahead.

If the next few months are marked by reforms that please the market, these papers will have a positive performance in the wake of a probable drop in interest rates, since the value of bonds rises when there is a reduction in rates.

On the other hand, if the signs coming from Brasilia indicate an increase in spending, the tendency is for inflation expectations to also rise, with IPCA Treasury bonds protecting investors from this risk. “It ends up being a more defensive strategy, and that takes advantage of a real interest that is attractive”, says Carolina.