Fuel readjustment has an impact of 0.40 points on the IPCA between August and September, says Campos Neto

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Petrobras announced an increase in gasoline and diesel prices for distributors, valid as of this Wednesday (16). A liter of gasoline will rise by R$0.41, and a liter of diesel will rise by R$0.78. The president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, estimated this Tuesday (15) that the readjustment of fuels announced by Petrobras should have an impact of 0.40 percentage points on official inflation between August and September of this year. “Administrated prices, today there was a big increase [de combustíveis] which has an impact on inflation of 0.40 [ponto percentual] between August and September. Indirect impact on the chain, in the case of diesel. But gasoline directly on the IPCA. We are going to see some forecasts with today’s readjustment”, declared Campos Neto, during participation in the Parliamentary Entrepreneurship Front (FPE). Earlier this Tuesday, Petrobras announced an increase in gasoline and diesel prices for distributors , valid from this Wednesday (16). The liter of gasoline will increase by R$ 0.41, reaching R$ 2.93, and the liter of diesel will increase by R$ 0.78, changing to R$ In a note, Petrobras points out that “the amount effectively charged to the final consumer at the service station is also affected by other factors such as taxes, blend of biofuels and profit margins from distribution and resale”. the company says that so far, in 2023, the accumulated variation in fuel prices shows a reduction of R$ 0.15 per liter for gasoline and R$ 0.69 per liter for diesel. this week’s fuels, financial market analysts estimated an IPCA of 4.84% for this year and 3.86% for 2024. New pricing policy The adjustment was announced after criticism from private agents that the state-owned company’s prices had ” cool”, in recent months, from the foreign market due to the use of the new pricing policy adopted from May onwards. By the rule that was in force before, since 2016, the price of these products in the domestic market followed the international fluctuations in the price of oil and the dollar. In the previous calculation, called the Import Parity Price (PPI), Petrobras considered the value of oil on the global market, the value of the dollar and logistical costs such as chartering ships, port fees and the use of internal pipelines for transport. . In the new pricing policy, the state-owned company started to consider the interval between two market references: the highest value that a buyer can pay before wanting to look for another supplier; and the lowest value that Petrobras can practice in the sale while maintaining the profit. Interest rate definition In early August, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to reduce the Selic rate from 13.75% to 13.25% per annum. This was the first cut in the basic interest rate in three years, which took place after an improvement in inflation in recent months and, also, amid criticism from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. To define the basic interest rate and try to contain the rise in prices, the Central Bank is already targeting, at this moment, the target for next year and the objective, in 12 months, for the beginning of 2025. Selic rate takes six to 18 months to have full impact on the economy. In the communiqué, the Copom also said that, in the next meetings, it may continue making the Selic “reduction of the same magnitude” as that of Wednesday. That is, cuts of 0.5 percentage points. “Confirming the expected scenario [de desinflação e ancoragem das expectativas em torno da meta de inflação]the members of the Committee, unanimously, foresee a reduction of the same magnitude in the next meetings and assess that this is the appropriate pace to maintain the contractionary monetary policy necessary for the disinflationary process”, informed the BC. In addition to the readjustment of fuel prices by Petrobras this Tuesday, the Central Bank has said that, due to the reduction in fuel prices at the end of last year, a factor that will not be repeated in the same period this year, official inflation “will have an upward movement in twelve months from now until the end of the year”.

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