For the first time in history, the harvest could “really” fail in Mato Grosso

In the world of agricultural commodities listed on the Chicago Stock Exchange, all attention is currently focused on the progress of crops in Central Brazil, particularly in Mato Grosso, the country’s largest soybean producer and one of the largest global green belts. Traditionally, the state confirms its excellent agricultural capacity year after year and has never dropped above 11%, but this cycle may be the exception to the rule.

After three consecutive years of record harvests driven by the meteorological phenomenon La Nina, In this cycle there was a change of scenery and the El Niño brought high temperatures to the region, combined with scarce and erratic rains, which delayed the planting season and forced many producers to replant soybeans more than once. In many areas, the loss of soybeans is irreversible and is already estimated at around 20%.

Historically, the biggest drop ever recorded in Mato Grosso, according to data from the National Supply Company (Conab), was 11% in the 1989/90 harvest. In monthly monitoring of crops, the latest report from consultancy Agro Itaú BBA predicts losses of 20% in the state, which reduces estimates of a potential harvest in the country from 163 million to 153 million tons.

Predicted rains did not come in sufficient quantity

There was a forecast of good rain in the Central-West in December, which did not materialize. On the contrary, there was a new heat wave with temperatures above 40º C. The opposite situation exists in Argentina, which suffered from the phenomenon La Nina for three consecutive harvests and now, with the El Niñoproduction is expected to double, reaching 50 million tons, compared to 25 million in the previous soybean harvest.

In the Matopiba region (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia), the last in Brazil to sow seeds into the ground, there is still an expectation that rain will arrive in time to guarantee good crop development.

Meteorologist Luiz Renato Lazinski observes that, as a general rule, the La Nina (cooling of Pacific waters) is usually favorable to plantations in the Center-West and Matopiba, while the opposite occurs for the Center-South, with the El Niño (warming of the Pacific) bringing more abundant and regular rains.

Soy is a “crusty” legume and can still react

“What is happening in Mato Grosso and Matopiba with the El Niño These are the summers, periods of 20 days or more without rain. This is further aggravated by extremely high temperatures, above average. Many people plant outside the window and, when they plant outside the window, they don’t take out insurance. If it works, it works. If it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work. But without technology [uso das melhores sementes]productivity is lower”, says Lazinski.

There is still hope for crop recovery because soybeans are a “crusty” legume. “I think the loss will not be small, despite soybeans being a resistant weed. The drought comes, the bush dies, the soybeans remain. With the rain it recovers. The good news is that the weather conditions will improve significantly in the coming days and at the beginning of January”, says Lazinski.

Research by the Association of Soybean Producers of Mato Grosso (Aprosoja-MT) with more than 600 farmers confirms a projection of a 20% drop, reducing the soybean harvest in the state by 9.16 million tons – from 45.31 million to 36 .15 million. In the municipality of Vera, in the middle-north of the state, the volume of rainfall in the months of September, October and November was 52% lower than in the same period in 2022.

Lack of rain already affects next corn harvest

On average, 34.3% of producers said that the crops were in excellent or good condition, 37.7% said they were in reasonable condition and 27.6% said they were in bad or very bad condition. Due to the delay in soybeans, subsequent safrinha corn cultivation is expected to shrink by 24.6%, because many producers will stay outside the climate zoning window, preferring not to risk new losses.

For now, consultancy Agrural predicts an 11% drop in the Mato Grosso harvest, around 5 million tons. “We will review the number in January, and it is very likely that the drop will be greater, as December has been very hot and the rains remain irregular”, says analyst Daniele Siqueira.

Hope lies in the rains forecast for the turn of the year, which could favor replanted areas. “But the areas planted in September actually already have irreversible declines. The losses are well spread across every corner of the state. Among the worst are the areas planted earlier in the west and mid-north of Mato Grosso”, he highlights.

The same El Niño severe floods that “stole” rain from the Central-West caused historic floods in the South of the country. This caused a delay in soybean cultivation and, consequently, should also delay the planting of safrinha corn, which takes place in succession. To complicate the scenario, meteorologists’ radar indicates a strong probability of a new La Nina From may. “That La Nina it comes very quickly and should not be weak”, warns Lazinski.

La Nina may be on the way, with risk of frost

“What is happening in Mato Grosso and Matopiba could happen in southern Brazil from May onwards. And the big problem is the cold air masses characteristic of the La Nina. Planting safrinha corn later in Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo, the chances are great for very intense cold air masses, of frosts from June onwards. It’s not that it’s going to happen, but it’s good to keep an eye on it”, warns the meteorologist.

Coincidence or not, precisely in a year of climate turmoil, the federal government cut resources allocated to subsidizing rural insurance. The subsidy is part of the cost of the policy taken over by the government, to make taking out the insurance viable for producers.

The budget allocated to rural insurance this year, of R$933 million, is the smallest since 2020. And it guaranteed coverage of an area of ​​just 5.5 million hectares, while in 2020 and 2021 the protected area reached 14 million hectares. acre.