Financial market reduces inflation estimate to 3.86% in 2024

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Inflation estimates for this year remained at 4.84%, and still exceeds the ceiling set by the government, which is up to 4.75%. Numbers were released this Monday (14) by the Central Bank. Financial market analysts maintained their inflation estimate for this year at 4.84%, and reduced their projection for next year from 3.88% to 3.86%. The information is contained in the “Focus” report, released this Tuesday (14) by the Central Bank. The survey heard more than 100 financial institutions, last week, about the projections for the economy. As a result, the analysts’ estimate for the 2023 inflation still exceeds the target ceiling set by the National Monetary Council (CMN). The official inflation target will be considered formally met if the 12-month index fluctuates between 1.75% and 4.75% this year. For 2024, the inflation target, defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), is 3% and will be considered met if it fluctuates between 1.5% and 4.5%. Special g1: what is inflation Understand: how inflation affects your pocket To define the basic interest rate and try to contain the rise in prices, the BC is already aiming, at this moment, at the target for next year and at the objective, in 12 months, to the beginning of 2025. If the financial market projection is confirmed, this will be the third year in a row that the inflation target has been exceeded, that is, in which the IPCA is above the ceiling set by the government. In 2022, inflation amounted to 5.79%. The higher the inflation, the lower the purchasing power of people, especially those who earn lower wages. This is because the prices of products increase, without wages accompanying this growth. Economic growth For this year’s GDP growth, the financial market projection rose from 2.26% to 2.29% last week. GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the country. The indicator serves to measure the evolution of the economy. As for 2024, the financial market growth forecast continued at 1.30%. Interest rate Financial market economists maintained their estimates for the basic interest rate for the Brazilian economy for the end of this year and 2024. For the end of 2023, the financial market maintained its projection for the Selic rate at 11.75% per year. For the closing of 2024, the market projection for the economy’s basic interest remained at 9% per annum. Other estimates See below other financial market estimates, according to BC: Dollar: the projection for the exchange rate for the end of 2023 rose from R$ 4.90 to R$ 4.93. By the end of 2024, it remained stable at R$5. Trade balance: for the balance of trade (result of total exports minus imports), the projection rose from US$67 billion to US$70 billion in surplus in 2023 For 2024, the expectation for the positive balance remained at US$ 60 billion. Foreign investment: the report forecast for the inflow of foreign direct investment in Brazil this year remained at US$ 80 billion inflow. For 2024, the inflow estimate was also stable at US$ 80 billion. VIDEOS: economic news

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