Financial market projects high inflation and GDP in 2023

The financial market once again raised the inflation rate for 2023, according to the Focus report, released by the Central Bank, this Monday (10). The inflation estimate for 2024 rose from 4.13% to 4.14%. For 2025, the projection was maintained at 4%.

According to the report, the forecast for the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), considered the country’s official inflation, rose from 5.96% to 5.98% this year.

Regarding the economy’s basic interest rate, the Selic, the financial market maintained its estimate for 2023, for the eighth consecutive week, at 12.75% per year. For 2024, the projection remains at 10% per year. At the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), the Selic was maintained at 13.75% per annum.

The projection of financial institutions for the growth of the Brazilian economy this year increased from 0.9% to 0.91%. For 2024, the expectation for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – the sum of all goods and services produced in the country – is for growth of 1.44%. For 2025 and 2026, the financial market projects GDP growth of 1.76% and 1.8%, respectively.

The expectation for the dollar exchange rate is R$ 5.25 for the end of this year. By the end of 2024, the forecast is that the US currency will remain at R$ 5.27.