Emissions: transport sector slips into being green – 06/12/2023 – Market

Not so long ago, an international transport forum was dominated by discussions about infrastructure and security. Today, although the debate on how to reduce accidents and expand mobility options remains, the main theme at the highest conferences in the sector is another: the climate crisis.

At the ITF (International Transport Forum) this year, for example, the word decarbonization was repeated on almost all tables at the event, which traditionally takes place in Leipzig, Germany, and is considered one of the most important in the area.

It’s not for less. The sector is responsible for about a quarter (23%) of all energy-related carbon emissions. With the expansion of demand, this number continues to increase, as well as the pressure to curb the already irreversible process of global warming.

Interestingly, the centrality of the green agenda in the transport forum coincides with the launch of a program that the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) announced to expand access to popular cars in Brazil.

In the assessment of experts, the proposal goes against the grain of the global ambition to reduce emissions and accelerate the energy transition.

The fact is that although the government linked the biggest discounts to environmental criteria —and included buses in a revamp of the program—, the package with incentives would be out of line with the discussion that the sector is making in 2023, which gives centrality to the improvement of public transport and in alternatives to the polluting individual car.

But the mishaps are not exclusive to Brazil. Despite advances in green technology, the process of decarbonizing transport is still slow globally. According to the most recent ITF report, all the measures already implemented would imply a reduction of only 3% of emissions by 2050 – compared to 2019 data.

In other words, current efforts are insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming well below 2°C.

But the report brings good news. There is an ambitious transition scenario, which allows cutting the sector’s emissions by 80% by 2050, and which would be cheaper than keeping it the way it is.

According to the document, the expected increase in demand for the coming years will already require massive investments. Global passenger demand will increase by 79% by 2050. Freight demand is expected to practically double.

The ITF projection is that making the accelerated transition to low carbon will mean about 5% less investment than in current policies.

The basket of options includes scaling up electrification efforts, expanding the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) ecosystem, developing zero-emission ships and improving public transportation.

But the devil lives in the details. Debating the green transition brings up a number of complexities.

The solutions that work in Europe, for example, are not the same ones that will work on the African continent. Furthermore, how to renew the maritime, road and air fleet without this excluding a relevant part of the population due to the inevitable increase in costs?

Achieving climate goals without ignoring these multiple layers is one of the biggest puzzles in the industry today.

The 2023 edition of the ITF had as its theme “transport enabling sustainable economies”. But not everything was about carbon. The event also discussed circular economy, ways to reduce the disparity between men and women in the sector, and the fight against inequalities.

Young Tae Kim, secretary general of the ITF, points out that the term sustainable is associated with green, but also includes issues such as access, inclusion and distribution of opportunities.

According to him, debate requires patience, and by patience he means realism.

“The issues are becoming more complicated, because we have more things to consider. In the past, we focused on a smaller number of variables. Now we have to think about sustainability, we also face rapid digitization, gender distortion issues”, he lists.

One of the panels at this year’s forum was on the role of transport in tackling poverty. The debate was attended by the current Minister of Transport, Renan Filho, who highlighted in his speech that the challenges are completely different depending on the region of the globe.

“The transition to green transport brings great difficulty. In transport, we need to guarantee access, at low costs and verify who pays”, he said.

“Now, if the discussion on the planet is that there are still many people who do not have transportation, even the cheapest, imagine the average cost of transportation”, he added.

The minister said that this is a brutal challenge and that the big issue is balance. The changes required by the climate crisis cannot come at the expense of excluding the poorest.

“We need to find a way in which public resources allow us to sustain the system that is accessible, cheap and allows the green transition. It is easy to say, but very difficult to do.”

The panel featured representatives from other developing countries, who spoke about some of the layers of complexity that this journey presents.

Amanda Ngabirano, president of Uganda’s national tax planning board, mentioned the episode where a well-meaning investor provided 100 buses to provide “efficient public transport”. The result, she says, has been a disaster, because it’s not just about having new buses.

“It takes infrastructure, roads, bus stops, a system for issuing tickets,” listed Ngabirano.

The Indian Kalpana Viswanath, CEO of the startup Safetipin, also gave an example of how the discussions that take place in Europe do not apply to other developing countries.

One of the hot topics on the European continent is the incentive to walk as a means of transport. The ITF itself had a panel on this, with discussions on the benefits to physical and mental health, presenting it as an alternative to transit in metropolises.

Without directly mentioning the panel, Viswanath commented that it must be “very irritating” for someone who walks 40 kilometers a day to be told that walking is healthy or that it is a better means of transport.

The Indian executive also addressed the focus on electrification that dominates the current discussion on transport in the global North. According to her, this shows some of the regional disparities involving the sector, since in many countries —perhaps in most of them—an electric car is far from being an option in the coming years.

The comment echoes the criticism of an executive present at the event. According to him, by calling sustainable a series of solutions that are not available to most of the world, the sector seems to forget the meaning of the word sustainable.

Fossil industry competes for space in the transition

The puzzle of decarbonizing the transport sector still involves the speed of transition to low-emission vehicles.

Green hydrogen, for example, has become the “sexiest” term in the industry, as Kris Peeters, vice-president of the European Investment Bank, put it, but it is still far from being a reality.

The fuel is not yet consolidated in terms of technology – and there is still a long way to go before it can be produced on a large scale. Even if it reaches that plateau quickly, the construction of vehicles adaptable to green hydrogen would take decades. Making a new plane or ship, for example, usually requires investment of several years.

Faced with climate urgency, the fossil industry wants to compete with less polluting solutions — although not as green.

Melissa Williams, president of Shell Marine, pondered that you can’t avoid the good by waiting for the great. According to her, it is important to consider options that are already on the table, which, combined with energy efficiency, can help reduce emissions right away.

She mentions natural gas, which would emit less carbon without the need for a huge technological change. It would, in her words, be a transitional fuel, given that decarbonization needs to start now.

Anna Mascolo, executive vice-president of Shell, also mentioned biofuels, which are produced from garbage and waste.

“When we analyze from end to end, we see that there is less carbon emitted. In some cases, it can be significant: between 50% and 80% reduction”, he said. “I often say that progress is preferable to perfection,” she added.

The reporter traveled at the invitation of the ITF