Drought causes RS to lose 35 million tons of soybeans and corn in four harvests – 02/16/2023 – Vaivém

The severe droughts that have plagued Rio Grande do Sul in recent years caused a loss of 35.4 million tons in the last four harvests, taking into account only corn and soybeans.

The numbers are a comparison of Conab’s (National Supply Company) initial production perspectives with the volume harvested at the end of each harvest. In the case of the 2022/23 harvest, the data are still very preliminary and, if the dry climate continues in the state, the loss could be even greater.

The soybean and corn production potential for the 2019/20 to 2022/23 harvests could reach 101.3 million tons in the state, but remained at just 67.7 million. This means that the drought has destroyed a third of the expected production.

Losses in the field, in addition to affecting producers, reflect throughout the state’s economy. Rio Grande do Sul had the 4th highest national GVP (Gross Production Value), but, with these crop failures, it moved to 5th place.

The VBP measures the income obtained inside the gate by the producers, coming from the 17 main agricultural products and proteins. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, the state’s VBP fell to BRL 92.4 billion last year, after having reached BRL 122.3 billion in 2021.

This fall in production occurs even with the great expansion of the planted area of ​​some crops. From the 2017/18 harvest to the current one, soybean area increased by 16% in the state. Corn was stable and rice lost 20% of space.

More profitable and occupying areas that with the drought became less productive for rice, soy advances and, this year, occupies 6.46 million hectares in the state.

The rice area retreated to 863 thousand hectares, the smallest space dedicated to the cereal in Rio Grande do Sul since the 1997/98 harvest.

The Gauchos, who came to lead soybean production until the mid-1990s, giving way to the people of Paraná, have suffered severe droughts in recent decades. Mato Grosso currently leads the production.

After reaching 9.6 million tons in 2002/03, the volume of soy harvested in Rio Grande do Sul dropped to 2.9 million in 2004/05. In 2020/21, production reached 20.8 million tons, but decreased to 9.1 million in the following harvest.

Unlike soy and corn, wheat is doing well in the state. After five growing crops in a row, production reached a record 5.73 million tons in 2022.

In the period from 2017 to 2022, the planted area increased by 107% and production by 348%, according to data from Conab.

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heat in RS Due to the adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul, AgRural reduced the soybean production forecast in the country to 150.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.1 million compared to the January estimate.

Heat in RS 2 Climatic adversities are repeated and the agency revised the harvest estimate for the state to 16.1 million tons, a drop of 4.3 million compared to the January numbers.

fertilizers Two factors that may influence prices in the coming months, in the assessment of Itaú BBA analysts. First, the United States and Europe must go shopping on the international market.

Fertilizers 2 In addition, the bank’s analysts also warn of an eventual escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical problems involving China and energy prices. These factors can also impact input prices.

Foods Prices rose, on average, 0.22% in the second quadrissemana this month in São Paulo. The rate is above the 0.19% of the previous period, when it had returned to the lowest level in 37 weeks.

Food 2 One of the highlights is the drop in the price of bread. Already rice, beans and milk remained high, according to data from Fipe (Foundation Institute of Economic Research).

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