Dollar rises to R$4.97, in alert with interest rate decisions abroad and tax decisions in Brazil; Ibovespa falls

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On Friday, the North American currency fell 0.08%, quoted at R$4.9268. The main stock index on the Brazilian stock exchange ended up 0.25%, at 127,636 points. pasja1000/Creative Commons The dollar is rising this Monday (22), recovering from last week’s losses. With no major milestones for the day, the financial market is preparing for interest rate decisions in Europe and Japan, as well as new corporate results in the United States. In Brazil, analysts await the development of the latest provisional measure (MP) sent by the government to increase revenue collection and the sanction of the 2024 Budget. Ibovespa, the main stock index on the Brazilian stock exchange, B3, is falling. See below for a summary of the markets. Dollar At 1:26 pm, the dollar was up 1.04%, quoted at R$4.9774. See more quotes. On Friday, the US currency fell 0.08%, trading at R$4.9268. With the result, it accumulated: increase of 1.44% in the week; and gains of 1.53% in the month and year. Ibovespa At the same time, Ibovespa fell 0.57%, to 126,902 points. On Friday, the index rose 0.25%, to 127,636 points. With the result, it accumulated: decrease of 2.57% in the week; falls of 4.89% in the month and year. READ ALSO CASH OR CARD? What is the best way to take dollars when traveling? DOLLAR: When is the best time to buy the currency? Understand what makes the dollar rise or fall What is moving the markets? This Monday (22), the Central Bank (BC) released a new edition of the Focus bulletin. The financial market reduced, for the second consecutive week, the inflation estimate for 2024, forecasting an increase of 3.86%. The inflation target that the BC should pursue is 3%. The projection for the exchange rate also fell. The estimate, which was one dollar at R$5 four weeks ago, is now R$4.92. In both cases, this is the predicted value for the end of 2024. Finally, the market expects a 1.6% growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024. The projection grew marginally compared to the previous week (1, 59%). Still here, eyes are on the possible repeal of the provisional measure (MP) that reestablishes payroll taxes. The president of the National Congress, senator Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), stated on Friday that there is an agreement built for the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) government to remove the section. In addition to reimbursing the payroll, the MP includes other measures designed by the government to meet the goal of zero deficit in 2024 – that is, to spend only what it collected in the period. “There is a commitment from the federal government to reissue the provisional measure to revoke this provisional measure in the part that concerns the payroll tax exemption. That is the political commitment we made. And that is how it will happen and how things will go,” he continued . The MP was published at the end of December and announced by the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, a few weeks after Congress decided that it would extend the payroll tax exemption for 17 labor-intensive sectors. Furthermore, President Lula will veto R$5.4 billion in commission amendments when sanctioning the Budget for 2024, this Monday. The information is from Camarotti’s blog. This type of amendment had risen to around R$16 billion in the text approved by Congress. With the veto, it should return to the level of R$11 billion. The meeting to sanction the Budget is scheduled for 4pm this Monday. On the international agenda, the European Central Bank (ECB) decides on interest rates next Thursday. The expectation is that rates will be maintained, but (as has been the case with the Federal Reserve, the North American central bank) investors will be attentive to the signals sent by the monetary authority. “On the one hand, recent signals from ECB members have been harsher, warning of the risk of premature action. On the other hand, economic activity numbers have been weak, confirming that the region may already be in recession,” evaluates XP Investimentos, in a report. Also on Thursday, the first preview of the United States GDP result for the fourth quarter will be released. On Friday, the December Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) — or Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures — comes out, which determines the Fed’s decisions, as it shows how prices are inflating or deflating in the economy.

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