Dollar operates slightly higher, with American interest rates on the radar; Ibovespa rises

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Last Friday, the North American currency advanced 0.45%, quoted at R$4.9367. The main stock index of the Brazilian stock exchange fell 0.49%, to 130,197 points. 1 dollar notes Rafael Holanda/g1 The dollar operates slightly higher this Monday (18), after fluctuating a lot in the morning, on a day with a busier economic agenda and with the volume of business in global markets already starting to decrease due to the end of the year. Abroad, investors continue to reflect on the outlook for United States interest rates next year, following new statements from Federal Reserve officials (Fed, the American central bank). Here, the Central Bank of Brazil (BC) released another edition of the traditional Focus Bulletin – a report that brings together economists’ projections for Brazil’s main indicators. Expectations for inflation in 2023 fell once again, to 4.49%. Ibovespa, the main stock index on the Brazilian stock exchange, B3, opened higher, driven by the performance of Petrobras shares. See the day in the markets below. Understand what makes the dollar rise or fall Dollar At 12:10 pm, the dollar rose 0.11%, quoted at R$4.9420. See more quotes. Last Friday (15), the North American currency closed down 0.07%, sold at R$4.9144. With today’s result, it started to accumulate: increase of 0.15% in the week; increase of 0.44% in the month; drop of 6.47% in the year. Ibovespa At the same time, Ibovespa rose 0.49%, to 130,837 points. Shares of Petrobras, one of the companies with the greatest weight in the index, rose more than 2%, following the appreciation of oil abroad. On Friday, the index closed down 0.49%, at 130,197 points. With the result, it started to accumulate: increase of 2.44% in the week; advance of 2.25% in the month; gains of 18.65% in the year. READ ALSO CASH OR CARD? What is the best way to take dollars when traveling? DOLLAR: When is the best time to buy the currency? What’s moving the markets? After, last week, the Fed kept its interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50% per year, with the institution’s president, Jerome Powell, signaling that new increases should not happen, there is much speculation about when the cycle of cuts will begin. Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, told Reuters that he expects two interest rate cuts in 2024, but added that this should only happen in the third quarter. In the same sense, the president of the New York Fed, John Williams, considered that a discussion of interest rate cuts in March is still premature. BTG Pactual analysts comment that these positions reduced expectations of a more accelerated drop in rates, as the market expected. In Brazil, the day doesn’t have much movement. According to the latest edition of the Focus Bulletin, financial market economists reduced this year’s inflation expectation from 4.51% to 4.49%. It is the first time since June 2022 that analysts see this year’s IPCA below 4.5%. Analysts’ estimate for 2023 inflation is below the target ceiling defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN). The central inflation target is 3.25% this year, and could range between 1.75% and 4.75% this year. If the financial market’s projection is confirmed, a two-year sequence of non-compliance with the inflation target will be interrupted. In 2021, the IPCA totaled 10.06%. And, in 2022, inflation totaled 5.79%. For 2024, the inflation expectation is 3.93%, while the target is 3%, which could range between 1.5% and 4.5%.

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