Covid: high cases can lead to new hospitalizations – 03/03/2023 – Health

Covid has advanced again in some regions of the country, but at a still low level compared to other times of the pandemic, according to experts. In the state of São Paulo, for example, there was an increase in the number of patients admitted to ICU beds and wards.

In recent days, there has also been an advance in both positivity (rate of positive results) and demand for tests for the diagnosis of Sars-CoV-2 infection.

Regarding official data, however, it is likely that there is underreporting, since many people perform the self-test at home —whose notification is not officially registered— or else do not seek diagnostic tests if they are asymptomatic (without showing symptoms of the disease). .

“We have reports of many people with a positive diagnosis, but the official data are not clear”, says infectologist Raquel Stucchi, a professor at Unicamp. “We will only be able to know the real reflection of Carnival in two weeks, so it is important for people with flu symptoms to be isolated and wear a mask.”

The state of São Paulo announced this Thursday (2) the withdrawal of the mandatory mask in state public transport. The measure came a day after Anvisa (National Health Surveillance Agency) overturned the measure that forced passengers and crew to use protective equipment on planes and airports.

According to the agency, there was a decrease in new cases in crew members in February, which would justify the withdrawal of the measure.

However, the increase in cases since February 1 was already consolidating, assesses Isaac Schrarstzhaupt, from the Covid Analysis Network.

For him, the Carnival holiday may not mean an increase in cases in the same way as it did in the past, when there were no vaccines, but it is a time to reflect on risks.

“In fact, today the situation is better, thanks largely to vaccination, which still helps protect against hospitalizations and deaths, but we have been at a death level of around 80 to 120 deaths for more or less seven months [média móvel] per day. For me, it’s still a worrying disease,” he says.

It is likely that Carnival plays an important role in causing increased transmission of the virus and new infections or reinfections, but the increase in cases and hospitalizations had already been observed for at least four weeks in some states, such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro , some states in the Northeast and Amazonas.

According to the latest InfoGripe bulletin, with data up to the On February 25th, there is a tendency for SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) cases to grow in São Paulo and Amazonas, mainly in adults, indicating the circulation of influenza (in the case of Amazonas) and Covid (in the case of São Paulo). Paulo) related to increased respiratory syndrome.

There is also growth in São Paulo in children and adolescents, which may be related to other respiratory viruses. In Rio de Janeiro and Ceará, however, growth can also be seen in the elderly.

“We have in Brazil today a sum of three sets of data that can help to understand how the pandemic is going: the positivity of the laboratories, the hospitalizations for SARS and the ‘anecdotal’ cases, which are the reports of people with Covid, because many do the quick test at home and there is no official notification”, says Leonardo Bastos, one of the coordinators of Fiocruz’s InfoGripe bulletin.

INTERNATIONS IN SP RISE AGAIN

Meanwhile, hospitalizations due to Covid in the ICU and in wards in the state of São Paulo and in Greater São Paulo have risen again, according to the government.

This Wednesday (1st), there were 550 patients admitted to ICU beds for Covid in the state, a balance 10% higher compared to the last day 16 and 30% higher compared to February 1st.

Hospitalizations in ward beds, which totaled 1,284 this Wednesday (1st), also showed an increase of 26% and 75% respectively, considering the same dates.

The growth is repeated when observing the data only from Greater São Paulo. This Wednesday (1st), 390 people were hospitalized in ICU beds, an amount 13% higher compared to the last day 16 and 54% higher compared to February 1st.

In ward beds, there were 868 patients this Wednesday (1st), 42% more compared to the last day 16 and 116% more compared to February 1st.

Schrarstzhaupt recalls that the epidemiological situation now is, in fact, more favorable than a year ago, when the omicron variant was introduced for the first time in Brazil, but we are still far from saying that the “pandemic is over”.

The analogy that the researcher usually makes is that before we had a tsunami of new infections with omicron, but now the waves can be seen more as sequential “ripples”. “We are seeing a high sea level, but without those huge waves, that is, it is possible to reduce the level”, he says.

In addition, another data to be evaluated is the positivity of tests. A survey carried out by the Dasa laboratory network indicated an increase in the rate of positive results for Covid-19 in São Paulo of 28.11% in the last 15 days, from 23.69%, in the period from February 6 to 13, to 30 .35%, until the last February 26th.

In Rio de Janeiro, another important location for the testing network, the rate increased from 18.52%, on February 12, to 29.47% until the last 26th, an increase of 59%.

The network, which also performs the sequencing of part of the positive samples collected, detected the presence of the XBB.1.5 variant in 95% of the samples in recent weeks.

Abramed, which gathers data from medical and laboratory associations in the country, registered an increase of almost 40% in positivity in the last 14 days, from 15.8%, on the last 10th, to 22.1% until the week that ended on February 24th.