CMO approves revenue estimate of R$5.5 trillion for 2024

The Mixed Budget Committee (CMO) approved this Thursday (7) the preliminary report of the 2024 Budget, which was presented by the general rapporteur, deputy Luiz Carlos Motta (PL-SP), and defines rules for changes to the proposal.

The revenue and expenditure projections in the preliminary report total R$5,543.2 billion, with R$5,391.9 billion for the fiscal and social security budgets. Of these, R$1,736.5 billion refers to the refinancing of the federal public debt.

The revenue report referring to the LOA 2024 project (PLN 29/23) had an increase of R$10.5 billion in the estimate. The revenue rapporteur, senator Professor Dorinha Seabra (União-TO), reevaluated oil and dollar prices for next year, which impact royalty revenues.

In the project sent by the government in August, the average price of a barrel of oil had been estimated at R$73.90. In November, the economic team had already increased this value to R$82.34.

The senator explained that adjustments were also made to reduce revenue due to three impacts that were not included in the government’s initial forecast. The largest of them, R$1.3 billion, relates to the extension of tax incentives for Sudam and Sudene (PL 4,416/21). The effects of the sanction of the Special Tax Regime of the Minha Casa Minha Vida Program (Law 14,620, of 2023) and the extension of the Tax Regime to Incentive the Modernization and Expansion of the Port Structure – Report (PL 5,610/23) were also considered.

According to the rapporteur, the correct estimate of revenue is important so that the government can meet the fiscal target of eliminating the public account deficit. The target will be considered met if the result is negative by up to R$28.8 billion.

Risks and cancellations

The text also foresees a cancellation of R$2 billion in expenses planned by the government, which are around R$2.2 trillion. As in other years, the cut was linear between ministries so that resources could be redistributed by Congress.

The Budget rapporteur also highlighted some “risks” for budget execution in 2024:

• optimistic expectation of economic growth of 2.3% in 2024;
• revenues conditioned on the approval of legislative proposals in the amount of R$168.5 billion;
• effects of payroll tax relief (vetoes to the law under discussion);
• underpayment of social security benefits; It is
• possible general review of public servants’ remuneration or adoption of new restructuring of job and salary plans in 2024.

Greater investment in state-owned companies

The report also includes an increase of 5.4% in investment by state-owned companies, in relation to the values ​​contained in the PLOA 2023. Estimated revenues for 2024 (R$ 151.3 billion) come from own resources (R$ 143, 3 billion), contribution of resources for capital increase (R$ 3.5 billion) and long-term credit operations (R$ 4.5 billion).

The report also predicts the total amount of allocations for investments contained in PLOA 2024, reserved for the New PAC, in the investment budget of state-owned companies.

In October of this year, the federal government sent a project to the National Congress that opens additional credit of R$398.1 million in the 2023 Budget so that Petrobras and other state-owned companies can review their investment plans (PLN 35/23) .

“State-owned companies, following business dynamics, need to adopt flexible planning, which leads them to rectify, when necessary, their budgetary projections, in order to adapt to their business plans”, states the justification for the proposal .

Parliamentary amendments

The CMO also approved the guidelines of the Budget Amendments Admissibility Committee, which defines the rules for interventions in the budget law by parliamentarians. The text has an annex of 156 works that must be repeated by the state benches as they are not yet completed. The legislation obliges the benches to allocate resources to works already covered by amendments in the previous year until they are completed.

The CMO also approved the guidelines of the Budget Amendments Admissibility Committee, which defines the rules for interventions in the budget law by parliamentarians. The text has an annex of 156 works that must be repeated by the state benches as they are not yet completed. The legislation obliges the benches to allocate resources to works already covered by amendments in the previous year until they are completed.

A total of R$12.5 billion was reserved in the project for bench amendments. The CMO decided to make a reserve of R$4 billion to supplement resources from the Electoral Fund for municipal elections. In this case, each bench will be entitled to R$316.9 million.

Deputy Júnior Mano (PL-CE), who is coordinator of the Amendments Admissibility Committee, highlighted that it will be necessary to take into account the decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) on the rapporteur’s amendments. At the end of 2022, the Supreme Court established an end to the use of rapporteur amendments by other parliamentarians – including nomination by “external users”, who hide the deputy or senator responsible. It also prohibited federal government ministries, which operate expenses, from applying these funds. Regarding payments already made, it was determined that the bodies report, within 90 days, services, works and purchases carried out, identifying the requesting parliamentarians and the municipalities and states benefiting.

For individual amendments, around R$25 billion is reserved in the 2024 Budget. Each senator will be able to propose up to 25 amendments for a total value of R$69.6 million. The deputies have the same number of amendments, but the value is lower: R$37.8 million. Half of the resources must be allocated to health actions.

The commission must vote next Tuesday (12) on the report on the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), which defines the goals and priorities of the LOA, and the sectoral reports on the thematic areas of the Budget. Congress needs to vote on the text by December 22, before the start of the parliamentary recess. With information from Agência Senado.