Central Bank interference undermined Erdogan’s popularity in Türkiye

This Sunday (14), millions of people went to the polls in Turkey in the most important elections in the country’s recent history. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in power for 20 years, found himself facing an opponent capable of ousting him. Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), appeared in polls with more than 40% approval. The AtlasIntel poll, released the day before the election, pointed Kilicdaroglu with 0.1 percentage points in front of Erdogan, with 44.6% of the voting intentions.

In addition to the rise of Erdogan’s authoritarianism and populism over the years, which strengthened his opponent Kemal in a political campaign marked by the return of democracy, the fall in Erdogan’s popularity goes through the worsening of country’s economic crisis, stemming from a leader who intervened too much in the economy. Inflation reached very high inflationary levels, with the Consumer Price Index reaching 85.5% in November last year, the highest since 1998.

The value of the Turkish lira, in turn, has been falling year after year and reached US$ 0.0510 last week, the lowest value in history. The consecutive changes of economy ministers, State interventions in the Central Bank and the forced lowering of interest rates aggravated Turkey’s monetary instability and contributed to the population’s dissatisfaction with Erdogan. To make matters worse, the earthquake that hit Turkey in February of this year and left more than 50,000 people dead added to the country’s problems.

His opponent, in turn, promised in his election campaign to adopt liberal measures, such as guaranteeing the independence of the Central Bank. Regardless of who wins the election, chaotic monetary policies should remain as a lesson on what not to do to aggravate a country’s economic situation and even undermine political acceptance by the population.