Budget: Tebet says Congress affected forecast – 01/18/2024 – Market

The Minister of Planning, Simone Tebet, stated this Thursday (18) that the revenue estimate included in the 2024 Budget was “plausible” and “reasonable” when the piece was prepared, in the second half of last year.

However, he stated that this amount was affected by the approval of measures by the National Congress, which ended up reducing revenue estimates. He said that many matters were not approved “the way we wanted”. And he added that the government is still evaluating vetoes to the budget law.

The speech comes one day after the TCU (Federal Audit Court) warned that the government may have overestimated revenues in the 2024 Budget and sees a risk that the frustration of these expectations will lead to a deficit of up to R$55.3 billion.

Tebet participated this Thursday morning (18) in a meeting with vice-president Geraldo Alckmin and teams from Finance, Planning and the Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce. One of the items to be discussed is the remuneration of the 17 sectors that employ the most.

Upon arrival, the minister was questioned by journalists about the TCU report, which pointed out the overestimation of revenues. She responded that the revenue forecast received from the Treasury was feasible at that time, July last year, which is why it was included in the Budget.

“The Ministry of Planning and Budget receives the expected revenues from the Ministry of Finance. We checked and understood that what was presented and included in the budget was reasonable. So now it’s time this year to execute the budget in light of the estimate we made of the country’s growth and, obviously, consequently, revenue growth”, stated the minister.

“Regarding what was presented to us by July 31st and which appears in the Budget, the Ministry of Budget checked one by one the recipes presented by the Ministry of Finance and we saw that it was plausible”, he added.

The minister states that now will be the time to execute the Budget, but that adjustments can still be made. She said that they have not yet closed “to take stock” in relation to the budget, and that possible vetoes to the budget law are still being discussed.

The deadline for the sanction of the bill is next Monday (22).

“We have until January 22nd to submit a possible veto to the LOA that was approved by the National Congress”, he states.

Subsequently, the minister also attributed the possible source of divergence in the revenue estimate to the National Congress and the approved measures. She explained that the Budget was prepared when parliament was still discussing issues that would have an impact on the Union’s own revenue.

He cited as an example the payroll tax relief for the 17 sectors of the economy that employ the most.

“Now it’s time to survey all the measures that were approved by the National Congress, that were sent by the Executive, we know that they were not approved in their entirety, that is, the way we wanted. But this is part of democracy, This is the beauty of democracy”, said the minister.

“When this revenue estimate was delivered from the Treasury to the Ministry of Budget, we were faced with votes in the National Congress that had not been completed, an example of the exemption but also examples of other measures that were approved by Congress, but with some changes. Every time Congress makes changes, it changes this balance. Therefore, it changes it more or less, in this case it changed it less in terms of revenue”, he added.

This Wednesday (17), the TCU plenary approved a report warning that the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) may have overestimated revenues in the 2024 Budget and sees the risk that the frustration of these expectations will lead to a deficit of up to R$55.3 billion.

If this result is confirmed, it will mean non-compliance with the fiscal target set for 2024, which is to bring the deficit to zero.

The court of accounts also highlighted cyclical weaknesses in the Budget and structural weaknesses in the new fiscal framework, a rule for public accounts approved in August by the National Congress and which will be applied for the first time in 2024.

The TCU reported that “it was not possible to conclude on the viability, reasonableness and feasibility” of the promise to reduce spending on INSS (National Social Security Institute) benefits by R$12.5 billion based on pension reviews.