Avian flu: loss with outbreak would be BRL 22 billion – 07/10/2023 – Market

A survey carried out by FGV Agro at the request of Anffa Sindical (National Union of Federal Agricultural Tax Auditors) points to a loss of almost R$ 22 billion to Brazil in the event of an outbreak of avian flu in commercial farms. Agribusiness alone would suffer a loss of R$ 11.8 billion.

Since May, when the first case of avian influenza was confirmed in Brazil, there are 62 outbreaks of the disease registered in the country, one of which in a poultry. According to Mapa (Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock), consumption and export of products remain safe.

The FGV Agro study brings hypothetical situations that would impact the collection of various sectors. For example, for every loss of BRL 100 in the value of poultry meat exports, the trade sector would lose BRL 11, that is, the negative indirect impact for retailers and wholesalers would reach 11% of the total losses for the poultry chain . In this line, there would also be an 8% reduction in the production of animal feed, 6% in the electricity sector, 4% in land transport of cargo, among other segments.

The survey also estimates the loss of 46,000 formal jobs in various sectors, in addition to a R$1.3 billion drop in tax collection and a R$3.8 billion reduction in Brazilian income.

According to the researcher responsible for the study, Talita Priscila Pinto, the number of outbreaks of avian influenza registered in countries neighboring Brazil was evaluated for researchers to define the risk stages of the virus. The researcher states that the risk of contagion is greater between the day the virus enters the country and the date of confirmation of the first case and containment.

“It is during this period that we are completely exposed and depend on the efficiency of agricultural surveillance”, he says.

For Janus Pablo Macedo, president of Anffa Sindical, the study brings indicators and projections of how the avian flu can negatively impact the economy. For him, the moment is to observe and monitor the incidence of the virus in the country.

“The survey reinforces that we are on the right track, which is to focus our efforts on containing the spread of the virus, especially in agroindustries”, says Macedo.

“This ratio of losses for each sector of the economy is a hypothetical situation raised by the study and shows us the dimension of the problem, if the agricultural defense did not act quickly. Brazil has the capacity to act in the face of a possible outbreak. We are working together with the Mapa and state agricultural auditors to avoid such effects”, he says.

It is possible to monitor confirmed cases and those under investigation by accessing the indicator created by the ministry here.