Average Brazilian income grows in the 4th quarter, but is 6.8% below the peak

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According to specialists, the scenario shows that despite the greater generation of vacancies, wages still have not recovered. Money, bills, debts, salary, income José Cruz/Agência Brasil The improvement in Brazilian income has not yet been enough to erase the losses caused by the pandemic. Data released this Tuesday (28) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), for example, point out that even in the face of the 1.9% increase observed in the last quarter of 2022 compared to the previous three months, the R$ 2,808, the average income in the country is still far from the peak of R$ 3,013, reached in the quarter from May to July 2020. The data are part of the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Continuous PNAD), which also pointed to a reduction in unemployment rate in the quarterly comparison, at 7.9% (equivalent to 8.6 million unemployed people). The contingent of employed persons, in turn, was estimated at approximately 99.4 million in the period. READ ALSO: Unemployment in Brazil drops to an average of 9.3% in 2022, the lowest level since 2015, points out IBGE Calculation of the average Brazilian income by state shows inequality in the country But why does this happen? Part of the explanation for this scenario, according to experts, lies in the effects of the pandemic itself. “We had a very large loss in income during the pandemic period, when the job market closed down in view of the situation we were experiencing. There was a drop in income and a loss of workers’ bargaining power”, explains Lucia Garcia, an economist from the Inter-union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (Dieese). Garcia explains that, in practice, this translates into an increase in the generation of jobs in the country, but in positions that offer lower wages than those already offered in the past and little protection for the worker. “We see a generation of jobs or insertions that do not guarantee stability for the worker. The salaried worker in Brazil receives, on average, R$ 2,500 and most of the current jobs do not guarantee full working hours, income or institutional security”, completes the economist. The weight of inflation Experts also point out that another important point to be considered in this scenario is the inflationary pressure that continues to be seen in the country. The latest data from the IBGE on the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA), for example, point out that the indicator registered another advance of 0.53% in January. In the accumulated of 12 months, the increase in the index was 5.77%. “So, in addition to the pandemic effects, we must consider that we are also experiencing a period of high double-digit inflation, which has eroded consumers’ purchasing power. And the discreet and modest changes in labor income that appeared in the last months of 2022 even point to a recovery, but the deficit is still very large”, says the Dieese economist. Should this scenario improve? The prospects for the job market still divide opinions. For the economist at LCA Consultores, Bruno Imaizumi, for example, even though the evolution of the labor market has been quite positive since vaccination, it is still necessary to consider that part of this improvement still comes from informality and the departure of people from the labor market. . “The unemployment rate does not tell the story of this evolution very well, mainly because we saw a very strong exit of elderly people from the labor market. And it’s worth remembering when they [idosos] they stop looking for a job and stop occupying themselves, they end up reducing the calculation of the unemployment rate”, explains the economist. He points out, however, that there is still an important recovery in employment levels and that this improvement in the labor market should remain positive throughout 2023, albeit more slowly in view of the challenging domestic scenario — which should have less growth economy, high interest rates and still annoying inflation. On the income side, the economist reiterates that a stronger recovery of income is still expected for this year. “Wages are the last thing in the job market to fully recover. I believe that we are not going to see a 100% return on income at this point, but [essa evolução] will be a little more notable throughout 2023”, adds Imaizumi. As for Garcia, from Dieese, the scenario is still quite difficult for the Brazilian labor market. “Despite the increase in occupation, we still see a scenario of high informality and salaried workers in precarious conditions, which leaves a very difficult environment for the worker”, says the economist. “And that’s not to mention that the adjustment in the job market is not the same for everyone. So, I believe that even though there is an improvement in occupations from a statistical point of view, income should only reach better levels at the end of 2023 or at the beginning of next year”, adds Garcia.

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