2022 census: economic crisis, strength of agribusiness and cost of living explain population migration in Brazil, according to experts

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The IBGE Demographic Census shows that the country had the lowest average annual growth rate in history in the last decade, with some regions and states growing much more than others. 2022 Census Luiz Franco/g1 The numbers from the 2022 Demographic Census were surprising: Brazil has around 203 million inhabitants, a much smaller number than the projections of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) indicated. The country also registered its lowest population growth rate in history, with an increase of 0.52% per year, on average, since 2010. The detail that most calls the attention of economists consulted by g1, however, is that this growth rate has dropped much more in some regions than others. While the annual rate in the Northeast fell from 1.07% in 2010 to 0.24% in 2022, for example, the Center-West had a less expressive drop, from 1.90% to 1.23%. The same dynamic happened with states within the same region. This was the case of Rio Grande do Sul, which grew only 1.74% in 12 years, while the population of Santa Catarina shot up 21.78%. The IBGE itself still needs to process more data collected by the Census to properly explain what justifies the dynamics of the population in the last 12 years. But, according to experts, the main reason for internal migration is the search for better economic conditions. But two specific points should be highlighted: the states with the lowest growth or even declines in population are also those that have experienced the most financial difficulties; and the states and regions with the most expressive growth have a strong connection with agribusiness. Escape from financial crises According to Alexandre Pires, professor of economics at Ibmec, the states with the lowest percentages of population growth are precisely those that, in the last decade, have been experiencing economic problems. “There is a very direct relationship between the places with the greatest economic challenges and population stagnation, which shows that the economic crises are leading to a relocation of people in national territory, in the search for better working and living conditions”, he comments. Saucer. Carla Argenta, Chief Economist at CM Capital, shares the same point of view and highlights the examples of the South and Southeast. Although these were the regions that drove, in absolute numbers, population growth in Brazil, the rises were much more expressive in some states than others. In the Southeast, Carla highlights the example of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro: “although São Paulo is already an extremely populous state, it continued to gain inhabitants, while Rio de Janeiro had stagnation.” In São Paulo, the population grew 7.65%, in more than 3 million people, while in Rio the increase was 0.40%, with less than 65 thousand new inhabitants. The economist explains that this may be related to the maintenance of São Paulo’s economy as the main one in the country, while Rio de Janeiro has gone through serious financial problems in recent years, showing the unsustainability of public accounts. This is the same situation, according to Carla, from Santa Catarina (21.78%), which has shown a “thriving economy”, and Rio Grande do Sul (1.78%), which has experienced problems similar to those in Rio. The same trend occurred throughout the Northeast. In this context, the economist points out that people are looking for new places to live, with lower living costs and better opportunities to receive good wages. Population distribution by regions of Brazil. Arte/g1 The strength of agribusiness While there is stagnation in some states and regions, others register a more expressive growth and the great highlight is the Midwest, under the strong influence of agribusiness. The populations of Mato Grosso, Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul grew by 20.55%, 14.55% and 12.56%, respectively, all among the 10 highest in the country. Pires, from Ibmec, points out that agribusiness is a major Brazilian economic force and recalls that, in the first quarter of this year, the sector shot up 21.6%, pulling the entire result of the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the period. “It still remains to look at the next Census data that will be released, but it is already possible to say that, in recent years, there has been a strong migration to the Midwest in search of these opportunities with agribusiness”, he says. The professor also points out that “agriculture has become very dynamic” and, in addition to the Midwest itself, states in other regions managed to benefit from this influence. “When we talk about agro, we forget that it also involves an entire industrial chain, processing, and exports”. In this sense, Pires considers that São Paulo manages to remain very relevant throughout the economic chain — and, consequently, attracting inhabitants — because the state is “a great corridor for agribusiness” and is a space with great international connectivity. Santa Catarina is experiencing a similar situation. Race in the states: g1 shows population increase according to the Census over the decades Low population growth and impacts on social security in the future The IBGE has not yet released Census data regarding the age pyramid of the Brazilian population, but Carla, from CM, states that it is already possible to perceive a deceleration in the birth rate in the country. According to the economist, this may also be linked to periods of economic crisis that Brazil has gone through, which lead many people to choose to have fewer children and adapt their lifestyles, but the main reason is generational change, which it brought new perspectives on family arrangements, leading to this reduction in birth rates around the world. The biggest problem with this, she explains, is related to the maintenance of social security. In the current model, people of working age work and pay for those who have already retired. But, with the fall in the birth rate, there may soon be a mismatch between the number of workers and the number of retirees. “The data show that the population movement is changing and light an alert for the sustainability of the current social security scheme that we have, already opening precedents for a new reform”, she comments.

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