what to expect if the virus arrives

Until two weeks ago, records of the arrival of the H5N1 avian flu to the South American continent popped up on the other side of the Andes Mountains and the Amazon rainforest. But these natural barriers against the spread of the virus by migratory birds no longer count.

H5N1 landed in much closer neighbors than Chile, Ecuador and Peru. On the 15th, Argentina and Uruguay declared a national health emergency after the confirmation of cases of the disease in wild birds and domestic livestock. Since then, the situation has worsened in Argentina, which already has 25 outbreaks and this week confirmed the presence of the virus on a commercial farm in the municipality of Mainque, in the province of Rio Negro. So far, there is no scientific proof that the disease is contagious among humans, despite the high lethality in cases of close contact and without protection with infected birds.

Immediately, Argentina temporarily lost its status as a disease-free area and voluntarily suspended exports of poultry products. The fight, now, is to quickly extirpate the focus – with the sacrifice of all the birds in the lot and 10 km away. In parallel, a race to negotiate the reopening of exports and recover the condition of free area.

Even though the protocols for fighting the disease are the same, the economic impact of avian flu in Argentina is not comparable to the potential damage in Brazil. While Argentines export 190,000 tons of chicken per year, Brazil ships twice that per month. It is the largest global exporter, with 33% of all trade between countries, reaching revenues of US$ 9.76 billion. Adding egg exports, the values ​​rise to US$ 13 billion. There are 4 million direct and indirect jobs.

Brazil may be one of the last to be hit by the virus

A relative advantage of Brazil in relation to the disease is that it reached the main competitors first, in the northern hemisphere. The US, the second largest global exporter, managed to control outbreaks and “coexists” with the virus, without losing international customers. This is what Brazil also hopes to do.

“We have been working for more than three years in the markets that are our customers. Out of 150 countries, we could have a problem in ten or fifteen, if there is a focus of the disease on a commercial farm. But the majority, like China and European countries, already impose restrictions within a radius of 10 kilometers from a focus. In the rest, when it occurs in wild or backyard birds, it is not commercially available. Proof of this is that Japan continues to import from Europe and the United States, which register several outbreaks of the disease”, says Ricardo Santin, president of the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA).

Even though the effects can be mitigated by strict sanitary measures and new commercial arrangements, in the very short term there are those who see the potential for damage similar to that of Operation Carne Fraca or a truck driver stoppage. “If we go three days without exporting, it’s already chaos. We’ve already seen that in the Carne Fraca operation. It’s just that we don’t have a large storage capacity in the refrigerators. And we can’t leave it in the cold chambers waiting for the resumption of exports”, says a source at production chain in Paraná, which accounts for 35% of national production. Unlike beef cattle, which can wait on pasture, it is not possible to keep chickens in aviaries indefinitely. Lot turnover is almost monthly.

Lack of stock creates short-term problem

“It’s no use saying you’re going to store the product, because there’s no storage, there’s nowhere to store it. In the region where the outbreak happens, you have to stop housing immediately, take the eggs out of the machines and try to sell them on the domestic market. But the price it’s going to be free. And after 38 to 40 days, there’s no more,” says a businessman in the field, in Off. On the other hand, says the poultry farmer, a contingency plan must be quickly accepted by international customers, “because they will run out of options, they won’t have anywhere to look for the product”.

In the evaluation of Santin, from ABPA, the world has already learned to live with avian flu. “The problem is that many birds die and there is no food. Having neither meat nor eggs. But Brazil is prepared, if there is an outbreak, to quell it immediately”, she assures.

According to the rules of the World Organization for Animal Health (WHOA), theoretically, a country that has never had avian influenza can recover the status of free area in 28 days, if it adopts all the measures to eliminate the virus – sacrifice of the batch of infected birds, disinfection establishment and preemptive sacrifice of livestock in a close radius. Trade negotiations, however, take place bilaterally.

Eggs and meat can be safely consumed

Whether in relation to the new virus, or an old threat, such as salmonella, the biosafety control mechanisms in the Brazilian poultry chain ensure a very low risk of contaminated food reaching consumers’ tables. Even if this occurs, the correct handling and cooking of eggs and meat is effective in eliminating viruses and bacteria.

The fact that the virus is spreading, however, has the scientific community concerned. In January, the warning signal went off after the sanitary sacrifice of 50,000 mink (a species related to otters and ferrets) on a farm in Spain. It is feared that the animals did not become infected by eating contaminated birds, but that the virus managed to pass from one mammal to another. A mutation like this could be one of the triggers for turning H5N1 into a new global pandemic.

Studies seek to understand H5N1 among mammals

“Some mammals, such as the mink, can act as incubators for different influenza viruses, leading to the emergence of new strains and subtypes with the potential to be more harmful to animals and humans. The outbreak at a mink farm is of concern because it infected a large number of mammals kept in close proximity to each other, which exacerbates this risk,” says a note from the World Organization for Animal Health (WHOA). Several studies are underway to better assess the virulence and transmissibility of these viruses, including among mammals.

Last week, health authorities in Cambodia confirmed two cases of human infection with H5N1, which has not happened in the country since 2014. An 11-year-old girl received medical treatment, but did not resist. Her father, also infected, was asymptomatic.

There is, however, no evidence that the H5N1 strain is transmitted between humans, despite the high lethality: 873 people have been infected since 2003, totaling 458 deaths from the infection in 21 countries. If the virus were transmissible from one person to another, there would be many more deaths, given the rapid spread among birds. The most probable is that the contagion occurred by handling sick birds or contact with contaminated environments.

“Epidemiological and virological evidence suggests that the virus has not acquired the ability to sustainably transmit between humans, which makes the likelihood of person-to-person transmission low. As the virus continues to be detected in poultry farms, we should expect more cases of infected humans”, says a report from the World Health Organization of 26 February.

Chicken chain intensified testing and safety

The Ministry of Agriculture has coordinated a contingency plan with the state health defense departments to react to the eventual arrival of the virus in Brazil. The first measure will be to block the area of ​​focus, to then take a series of remedial actions within a radius of 10 kilometers from the detection. At the moment, the order is to intensify active prevention, by the inspection bodies, and passive prevention, which involves the communication of the disease by any citizen who notices symptoms in commercial, domestic or wild birds. Among the most typical symptoms are staggering gait, torticollis, tremors, difficulty breathing and diarrhea.

Last year, with the rapid increase in cases in the Northern Hemisphere, only the federal laboratories for agricultural defense, in São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul, processed 34,205 analyzes of samples of wild birds and subsistence birds reared in places close to migratory bird sites. In Paraná, the main chicken producer, approximately 15 thousand analyzes were carried out.

Suspected deaths of birds have mandatory notification and are attended to by the animal health defense within a maximum of 12 hours. A breeder can only obtain authorization to house chicks if he meets biosecurity issues such as fencing the sheds with anti-bird screens, adopting a disinfection system for vehicles and people, and restricting visits.

“Now it is necessary for producers to assert these structural issues. It is no use for the producer to have an aviary with an adequate screen, water quality and adequate disinfection of vehicles, if he keeps open sheds, for example, to cool the aviaries, to save on fans and nebulization. These are procedures that the producer has to do every day”, recommends Rafael Gonçalves Dias, Animal Health manager at the Secretariat of Agriculture (Seab-PR).

Migratory birds are leaving, which can help

An encouragement, which may give survival to the Brazilian status of “free of H5N1”, is the fact that migratory birds, potential hosts of the virus, are taking off their return flight to the Northern Hemisphere. They usually stay here from November to April. This, however, does not guarantee anything, since the virus has already landed on the continent, even killing geese and ducks – which are generally more resistant to infection.

“In other countries, winter really reduces outbreaks a lot. There is hope, but it is unknown. It may be that an autochthonous infection occurs, because here most birds do not migrate, since they have food all year round”, observes Luizinho Caron, researcher at Embrapa Aves, in Concórdia (SC), specialized in microbiology, sub-area of ​​virology.

Although the arrival of the virus is increasingly a matter of “when” and not “if”, the most serious effects for industrial poultry farming, as occurred in the United States and Europe, should not be repeated here. This is the opinion of the chicken market analyst at Cepea-Esalq/USP, Juliana Ferraz.

“We are the biggest player of the international chicken market. We reached this level because of the health issue, we have a very good health status. It can generate a one-off image crisis. But the world depends on Brazilian protein and has nowhere to run. One third of what the world consumes of chicken meat comes from Brazil. It’s a lot of meat”, says the analyst.