US accelerates production until 2032, maintaining competition with Brazil – 02/14/2023 – Vaivém

The challenges for agribusiness in the coming years will be inflation, the effects of extreme weather events, rising production costs, geopolitical conflicts and their consequences on the international market, in addition to the interruption of supply chains.

All this has already been experienced recently, and the result was an acceleration of commodity prices to record levels. After this rise, which placed values ​​above the historical average, prices should fall, settling in the final years of this decade.

In addition to these components, and looking at the likely macroeconomic conditions, international agreements and internal policies, technicians from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) outlined a scenario of how the country will be positioned in the next ten years in terms of production and exports. of grains and proteins.

By the numbers of the North American organ, the competition with Brazil will continue, since the two countries participate in the international market with practically the same products.

North American producers will not have much room to expand the cultivation area, which should remain close to 101 million hectares, considering the main crops.

They are betting, however, on greater yields in the sector, both in terms of crops and protein production. New production practices, technology, better genetics and innovations in the offer of chemical products should be the lever for this growth.

As in Brazil, few products dominate North American crops. Soy, corn, wheat and cotton account for most of the cultivated area. In the next ten years, soybeans and wheat should have little change in area, while corn and cotton will gain space.

Corn, which will reach 410 million tons, will have a yield gain of 10%, above the 8% for soy and 7% for wheat. The highlight is cotton, which, with the expansion of area and productivity, will increase production by 47%.

Soybean and corn exports in the 2032/33 harvest should, on average, exceed 10%, but cotton could grow 51%, in the USDA assessment.

Competition between the United States and Brazil will also continue in proteins, which will reach record levels of production. With this, the export power will also evolve.

For the North American organ, the United States will produce 23 million tons of chicken in 2032/33, with export potential of 4 million tons, 14% more.

The advances in beef and pork exports will be more discreet, comparing current data with those for 2032.

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Changes The FPA (Frente Parlamentar da Agropecuária) is beginning to express its dissatisfaction with the changes that took place in the Ministry of Agriculture during the Lula government.

Changes 2 For the entity’s president, Pedro Lupion (PP-PR), the alterations made by the government in the Ministry of Agriculture weaken the sector. The deputy says he does not understand the separation of family farming from agribusiness.

Changes 3 The former minister of the Bolsonaro government and currently a senator, Tereza Cristina (PP-MS), pointed out that Conab (National Supply Company) and Incra (National Institute for Colonization and Agrarian Reform) should remain in the Ministry of Agriculture.

Soy Consultants continue to evaluate this year’s soybean harvest, a period once again plagued by drought in some regions, mainly in areas of Rio Grande do Sul, but with good productivity in others, such as Mato Grosso.

soy 2 Agroconsult, which annually promotes the Safra Rally, reduced its estimate of national oilseed production to 153 million tons. But, in Mato Grosso, the production estimate was revised to 63.5 bags per hectare, above the 60 previously forecast.

soy 3 Startup 4intelligence also predicts a record volume in this 2022/23 harvest, but below 150 million tons. With a sown area 4.6% larger and productivity with a yield 7.2% higher than the previous crop, production should reach 146 million tons, according to the startup.

Invoicing Zoetis, in the animal health sector, recorded global sales of US$ 8.1 billion in 2022, with growth of 8%. In Brazil, revenues reached US$ 330 million, 3% more than in 2021.