Unemployment drops to 8.1% in the quarter ended in November, the lowest level since 2015

The unemployment rate in Brazil was 8.1% in the quarter ended in November, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points (pp) compared to the previous three months (8.9%), the lowest number since the quarter until April 2015. The number of unemployed fell to 8.7 million, the lowest number since the quarter ended in June 2015. There are 953 thousand fewer people looking for a job in the country (-9.8%). The data are part of the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD), released this Thursday (19) by the IBGE.

The unemployment rate has been falling significantly for six consecutive moving quarters in Brazil. The coordinator of IBGE Household Sample Surveys, Adriana Beringuy, explains that the decline in the quarter ended in November is explained by the 0.7% increase in occupancy in the period, which again reached the highest level in the survey’s historical series, which started in 2012. This percentage is equivalent to an increase of 680 thousand people in the job market.

The successive drops in the unemployment rate were also a reflection of the increase in the number of employed people, in a recovery movement of the labor market observed since 2021. “From that moment on, there was this expansion of the employed population, first of informal workers and, then, formal employment in the most diverse groups of activities, such as commerce and industry. More recently, there has also been an increase in services, which play an important role in the recovery of the employed population in the country”, points out Adriana.

The main impact on the increase in employment in the quarter ended in November came from the category of employees with a formal contract in the private sector, which increased its contingent by 2.3% (or 817 thousand more people).

The number of unregistered employees in the private sector remained stable compared to the previous quarter. The contingent represented, in the quarter up to November, 13.3 million people. When compared to the same quarter of the previous year, there was an increase of 9.3% (or 1.1 million people).

Another representative category within the informal labor market is that of employers without CNPJ, which remained stable compared to the previous quarter and the same period of 2021. The number of self-employed workers without CNPJ fell by 2.9% compared to the previous quarter ( minus 563 thousand people) and 4.1% compared to the quarter ended in November 2021 (minus 796 thousand).

These results impacted the drop of 0.8 pp in the informality rate, which reached 38.9%, the lowest since the quarter ended in November 2020 (38.7%). This proportion corresponds to a contingent of 38.8 million informal workers.

When considering employers as a whole, formal and informal added, the category was stable compared to the previous three months, but grew 12% compared to the same period in 2021. This number was impacted mainly by the 12.5% ​​growth in the number of employers with CNPJ, which is equivalent to 389 thousand people.

With the increase in the number of workers, the level of employment, percentage of employed persons in the working-age population, was estimated at 57.4%, a variation of 0.3 pp compared to the previous quarter (57.1%).

Number of discouraged people drops 4.8% in the quarter

The population outside the labor force grew 1% in the quarter, which represents 660,000 more people. Among those forming the potential workforce, there was a reduction of 454 thousand people (-5.8%). This category brings together those who were not busy or looking for a job in the market, but who had the potential to become a workforce. In the same period, the discouraged were estimated at 4.1 million. There was a reduction of 4.8% compared to the last quarter (or less 203 thousand people).

Regarding the groups of activities investigated by the survey, there was an increase in the number of workers in the sectors of Information, Communication and Financial, Real Estate, Professional and Administrative Activities (2.6%, or more 307 thousand people) and Public Administration, defense, security social, education, human health and social services (1.8%, or more 319 thousand people). In the last category, the segments of health and education stood out in terms of occupation.

The commercial sector, which usually offers more job opportunities as the end of year festivities approach, was one of those that did not advance significantly compared to the previous quarter. In addition to commerce, the other groups of activities surveyed were also stable in the quarter.

Income grows 3% compared to the previous quarter

The average real income was estimated at R$2,787, an increase of 3.0% compared to the quarter ended in August. When compared to the same quarter of the previous year, growth was 7.1%.

The income mass also grew in both comparisons and reached R$ 273 billion, again reaching a record in the survey’s historical series. Compared to the previous quarter, the increase was 3.8%, or more R$10.1 billion.

“The income mass has been growing throughout the year. In the quarter ended in November, growth was influenced simultaneously by the expansion in the number of workers and by the increase in average real income”, highlights the coordinator of Surveys by Household Samples at the IBGE, Adriana Beringuy. Compared to the same quarter of 2021, there was an increase of 13.0%, an increase of R$ 31.4 billion.

Unemployment rate in the South Region stood at 5.2%

By region, the unemployment rate in the South Region in the quarter ended in November was 5.2%, -2.3pp. compared to the same period of 2021 and -0.4 pp compared to the previous quarter.

The population of working age in the South Region is estimated at 24,966 thousand people, an increase of 157 thousand people (0.6% in relation to the same period of the previous year). The PNAD shows that, in relation to the previous quarter, there was no statistically significant variation. The employed population is 15,761 thousand people, which represents more than 881 thousand people working (5.9% compared to the same period of 2021). Compared to the previous quarter, there was an increase of 232 thousand people, that is, a variation of 1.5%.

As for the unemployed population in the South Region in the third quarter of 2022, there were 859 thousand people, which represents -343 thousand people in relation to the same period of the previous year (-28.5%). There was also a drop of 6.6% compared to the previous quarter, -61 thousand people.

The occupancy level stood at 63.1%, an increase of 3.2pp. compared to the period in 2021. Compared to the previous quarter, there was an increase of 0.9p.p.