Tax reform may generate an additional increase of 2.39% in GDP by 2032, predicts Ipea

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Survey considers transition period provided for in the new rule, between 2026 and 2032. The expectation is that the text will be voted on in the first round in the Chamber this Thursday (6). The implementation of the tax reform under analysis in the National Congress may generate an additional growth of 2.39% in the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 2026 and 2023 – compared to growth forecasts under the current tax regime. This is what a study by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea), released this Thursday (6th) points out. The reform aims to simplify tax collection in the country, a measure considered fundamental to unlock the economy and boost growth and job creation. The proposal is under analysis in the Chamber of Deputies and is expected to be voted on in the first round this Thursday. READ ALSO: Tax reform: see the main points of the proposal The survey considers the first text presented by the rapporteur for the reform in the Chamber, Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), on June 22nd. On Wednesday (5), the deputy made new changes to the proposal, with the inclusion of exemption for basic basket items, for example. There is still a lack of agreement on the federative council and the compensation fund, which should lead to new changes. Camarotti sees the reform proposal under way: It will be difficult for the opposition to be against something in favor of the country Minor impact, but still positive According to Ipea, the changes made until June 22 reduce the additional rise in GDP to be generated by the reform. With the original text, the PEC 45 of 2019, the expectation was for extra economic growth of 5.75% until 2036 – the transition period initially proposed. With the changes, the impact drops to 2.39%. According to the study, the rise in GDP is smaller in the substitutive text because of the maintenance of some regimes and exceptions. “This allows us to infer that a certain level of productive misallocations will remain”, says the research. GDP is an indicator used to measure the evolution of the economy. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the country. Growth in 19 states With the reform, Ipea projects an increase in GDP in 19 states, of which only two will present an increase above 3 percentage points: Minas Gerais and the Federal District. See projected growth by state: Paraná: 0.04% Maranhão: 0.09% Sergipe: 0.2% Tocantins: 0.22% Santa Catarina: 0.34% Amazonas: 0.39% Mato Grosso: 0.47 % Mato Grosso do Sul: 0.52% Rio Grande do Norte: 0.63% Pará: 0.75% Espírito Santo: 0.76% Ceará: 0.84% ​​Piauí: 1.04% São Paulo: 1.67 % Paraíba: 2.08% Rio de Janeiro: 2.36% Acre: 2.91% Federal District: 3.77% Minas Gerais: 3.92% The survey also predicts a drop in GDP projected so far with the changes. They are: Roraima: 1.71% Amapá: 0.93% Alagoas: 0.57% Rondônia: 0.41% Pernambuco: 0.32% Rio Grande do Sul: 0.09% Bahia: 0.07% Goiás: 0.07%

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