Strategists believe that the American Stock Exchange should rise just 1% in 2024 – 01/15/2024 – From Grão to Grão

Over the past two years, the American stock market, measured by the S&P500 index, has surprised investors. After falling in value by more than 19% in 2022, the index rose 24.2% in 2023. According to American strategists, this year the Stock Exchange should surprise again, but this time it will be due to almost no variation.

According to a survey released by Bloomberg, among 19 experts interviewed, the average opinion indicates that the S&P500 should end the year trading at 4,833 points.

The most followed stock index in the world ended 2023 at 4,769 points.

If the average strategists are right, the appreciation in the year 2024 would be 1.3%.

Many investors look to the recent past to make decisions about how to invest at the moment. This choice process has led to bad decisions in the last 2 years.

In 2021, the S&P500 appreciated by 26.9%. Those who decided to invest based on this appreciation lost 19.4% in 2022.

Again, those who left the Stock Exchange at the end of 2022 due to the poor performance in the year, lost the 24.2% appreciation in 2023.

According to the strategists interviewed in the Bloomberg survey, the risk, at this moment, is that the 2023 rise will lead investors to new frustration.

Executives from major institutions in the US were interviewed in the survey. Among them: JP Morgan, Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Wells Fargo and Societe Generale.

The lowest expectation for the S&P500 came from the JP Morgan bank executive who expects the index to end the year at 4,200 points, that is, a drop of 11.93%.

The highest expectation was given by the institutions Oppenheimer and Fundstrat. They expect the index to appreciate 9% to 5,200 points by the end of 2023.

There are reasons to justify the rise and to blame the fall.

On the negative side, the index is currently trading with a Price/Earnings multiple well above the historical average and there is an expectation of an economic slowdown in the USA. The optimistic side sees the expectation of falling interest rates as a cushion to support the shift of portfolios.

It is still too early to say which scenario is most likely to come to fruition, but it will undoubtedly be a year of great volatility given the geopolitical risks we face and the scenario of the American presidential elections.

Michael Viriato is an investment advisor and founding partner of Investor’s House.

Speak directly to me via email.

Follow and like De Grão em Grão on social media. Follow investment lessons on Instagram.

LINK PRESENT: Did you like this text? Subscribers can access five free accesses from any link per day. Just click the blue F below.