Since the aid of R$ 600 appeared, food has become 40% more expensive – 09/02/2023 – Vinicius Torres Freire

“The population has to know what is happening in the country, because, if not, it will remain in the lap of the president”, said Gleisi Hoffmann to this Sheet.

In the economy of everyday life, it turns out that the price of food is still increasing by more than 10% a year (or much more) for practically 30 months. There are signs that the job slump is coming to an end.

Is this talk about interest rates and the inflation target going to refresh the lives of those living on a razor’s edge, immediately and severely affected by high prices and lack of decent work?

According to Hoffmann, president of the PT and a woman of great confidence to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the following happens:

The president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos, has no political autonomy, he is a supporter of Jair Bolsonaro; he therefore makes political decisions.

By keeping the Selic rate at 13.75% per year, the Central Bank “plays against Brazil”, adopts Bolsonaro’s monetary policy, which was defeated at the polls.

The inflation target is “unfeasible” (3.25% this year and 3% next year), it is necessary to change it.

Thus, the obvious suspicion is confirmed that Lula’s and PT’s speeches are aimed at “removing” from the government the responsibility for the probably low growth of this 2023.

In fact, Lula will have nothing to do with this year’s PIBinho, although the sururu that he has caused since November reduces the possibility that the economy will recover by the end of the year.

This is the astonishment. Lula could say that she received “accursed inheritances” from the dark government without creating this confusion.

Therefore, there are still doubts about the strategy. Does the possible effectiveness of advertising outweigh its counterproductive effect (higher interest and dollar)? How aware are Lula and the political environment of this problem?

On the other hand, the minister of political articulation, Alexandre Padilha, with Lula’s probable assent, has performed miracles as a tightrope walker to say that the government is not going to kick the dick out of the monetary tent.

It is difficult to say what reaches the ears of the majority of the population. The price of food was still increasing at a rate of 12.3% per year, until January. Inflation (IPCA) for the last 12 months was 5.8%. But the inflation of “free” prices (excluding fuels and others more or less regulated by the government) is still almost 9% a year.

It is possible that the large harvest forecast for this year will help bring down the price of food (if there are no significant drops abroad and more economic sururu in here). Still, food on the rise of more than 10% a year is torment.

The hardship will be even greater if the projection is confirmed that employment should remain stagnant — it was the forecast even when it was assumed that “BC interest rates” would fall this year.

The new Bolsa Familia, worth R$600, will help the poorest. But since the BRL 600 benefit began to be paid in April 2020, the price of food has increased by 40%.

Anyway, maybe the explanation that a bad 2023 will be Bolsonaro’s fault, although almost half of the electorate chose to re-elect the leader of darkness.

It may be that the country’s “potential” for growth is greater, even under the squeeze on interest rates and, thus, that the end of the decline in employment, scheduled for this quarter, will be postponed. In any case, growth will be lower than it could have been, especially from the second half of the year, because of the financial squeeze caused by the turmoil at the beginning of Lula 3.

Hardly anyone has any idea what monetary policy or the interest rate market is. Furthermore, Lula inspires or inspired a lot of confidence in the poorest (see the patience of the people in 2003-2004, under Lula 1). But the test in the pudding will be whether you eat it (or not): food and job inflation.

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