Ships should zero carbon emissions around 2050 – 7/6/2023 – Environment

Gathered throughout this week at the headquarters of the IMO (International Maritime Organization), in London, the member countries of the UN agency concluded, on Thursday night (6), a new strategy on greenhouse gases for the maritime sector.

The countries reached consensus on the goal of zeroing net emissions in the sector by around 2050. The decision will be adopted in plenary this Friday (7th) and represents a leap forward in relation to the previous commitment, which estimated to reduce by only half emissions by 2050.

The 2050 deadline was the subject of dispute that led negotiators to spend the night from Wednesday to Thursday. This is because the Paris Agreement allows flexibility for countries to determine their climate goals, causing some to have already defined the year 2050 as the limit for zeroing their emissions, something foreseen in the Brazilian goal, while others, such as China, have established the deadline from 2060.

As the IMO decision will become law in the countries, the negotiators prioritized the accommodation of the different national circumstances in the text. The final text had the following construction: “zero emissions by or around, that is, close to 2050”.

The trajectory up to 2050 was also approved in the form of “indicative checkpoints” (a weaker nomenclature than “objectives”, which lessens the pressure on countries that do not follow this trajectory).

The new text comes close to what the countries had already decided in the Paris Agreement (which does not address emissions from the maritime sector or civil aviation), but is still not aligned with the commitment to avoid warming greater than 1.5°C in the global average, which means cutting emissions in half by 2030.

Countries agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by “at least 20%, striving for 30% by 2030”. By 2040, the reduction window should be between 70% and 80%, reaching zero around 2050.

Although insufficient in the face of the climate challenge, the result was celebrated by the negotiators and also by the secretary general of the agency, Kitack Lim. “The result is monumental, I did not expect it. The countries reached an unprecedented consensus in the IMO”, he told Sheet.

After tense meetings at dawn, the negotiations ran the risk of ending without an agreement. It was overnight, literally, that the ambition of projecting the emissions curve increased.

After African countries and those from small islands left the negotiation rooms amidst strong frustration in the early hours of Wednesday to Thursday, this Thursday morning Brazil operated, at the request of the group of small islands, a seam to convince the countries to raise the targets for 2030 and 2040.

A Sheet found out that the Marshall Islands insisted with Brazil to leave with a 5% higher target. In the previous draft, emission reductions were expected to be up to 25% in 2030 and up to 75% in 2040.

Brazil, then, negotiated with developed countries and the developing bloc to add to the text the passages “striving towards 30% by 2030” and “striving towards 80% by 2040”. The targets are related to the sector’s emissions in 2008.

The achievement satisfied the island countries, which came back on board for the agreement. In gratitude, the special envoy of the Marshall Islands, Albon Ishoda, removed the necklace he wore during the week and dressed it on Itamaraty negotiator, Bruno Carvalho Arruda, in a gesture of alliance. Developed countries also thanked Brazil for sewing.

Brazil went from villain to good guy in the negotiations throughout the week. That’s because the countries arrived at the initial plenary of the IMO, on Monday (3), under strong division: the developed bloc and the group of the most vulnerable were together in defense of carbon taxation for the maritime sector.

On the other hand, Brazil, China and developing countries in Latin America and Africa resisted the proposal, on the grounds that it would disproportionately affect exports from developing countries, both because they are further away from large consumer markets and because they export commodities, with lower added value compared to industrialized products, which increases the impact of taxation on the final price of products.

The main carbon tax proposal, supported by the Europeans and by the countries most vulnerable to the climate, establishes that countries pay US$ 100 per ton of carbon emitted, generating a fund to support climate financing in the most needy countries.

Other proposals seek to make payment conditions more flexible. Norway, for example, has proposed a carbon credit market for the maritime sector. Japan, on the other hand, proposed a system of fees and discounts, which would generate rewards for ships that use fuels with the highest environmental standards.

Along these lines, China proposed, with the support of Brazil and other developing countries, that the incentives be based on the fuel standard —classified from A to E, similar to the energy efficiency classification of Brazilian appliances.

Ships powered by higher grade fuels (A and B) would receive incentives, while those with lower grades (D and E) would have to pay a fee, which finances technology transfer programs for developing countries.

After having discussed the proposals over the last six months, the negotiators arrived in London with the expectation of having to choose one of the carbon pricing mechanisms. Under resistance from emerging economies, the decision was postponed.

After disclosing a study by USP (University of São Paulo) showing that developing countries would be disproportionately affected by a carbon tax, Brazil sought to convince countries that an impact assessment study should be carried out before choosing the mechanism.

The country participated in the elaboration of a complex array of scenarios, which must be crossed with the main carbon pricing proposals to measure the social and economic impacts in all regions of the globe.

The study should be ready by early 2025, when countries will have six months to analyze impacts and adopt one of the carbon pricing mechanisms, which should come into effect from 2027.

_{The journalist traveled at the invitation of the Global Strategic Communications Council (GSCC)}