Selic at 13.75%: how much savings, CDB and Treasury yield – 03/22/2023 – Market

With the maintenance of the Selic rate at 13.75% per annum this Wednesday (22), fixed income remains the most attractive investment among the main financial investments in the Brazilian market in the evaluation of specialists.

It was the fifth consecutive meeting in which the BC (Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee) opted to keep the basic interest rate of the Brazilian economy unchanged, at the current level since August of last year.

“Investors have opted for fixed income on account of high inflation, and the Selic rate is even higher, making profitability interesting and safe”, says Andrew Storfer, director of economics at Anefac (National Association of Finance Executives).

“Variable income applications such as the Stock Exchange, which has ups and downs, end up being an investment in these times for those with a greater appetite for risk”, adds the specialist.

According to a survey carried out by Storfer, considering the prevailing Selic level, an investment of R$ 1,000 in post-fixed public bonds to the Selic Treasury, which closely monitors the profitability of the basic interest rate, would yield the investor R$ 114.96, considered an interval of 12 months.

The value considers an application with an interest rate of 13.93% per year and already discounts the incidence of the 17.5% Income Tax rate for investments redeemed within one year.

According to Anefac’s calculations, CDBs (Bank Deposit Certificates) from medium-sized banks represent the most profitable option among the main alternatives, returning the value of R$ 130.45 to investors who invest R$ 1,000 within a year, deducting the IR at source. In this case, the interest considered is 15.81% per year.

With regard to large banks, the yield received after 12 months would be R$ 107.77, upon investment with interest of 13.06%.

In the case of LCIs (Letters of Real Estate Credit) and LCAs (Letters of Agricultural Credit), which are not deducted from the IR, the net gain within the period of one year will be R$ 127.88, remunerated by an interest of 12 .79% per annum.

“Applications such as Direct Treasury, CDBs from large banks, conservative funds and letters of credit are safe and have a yield, depending on the term, very close to or even above the Selic”, says the director of Anefac.

Storfer adds that, in the case of CDBs from smaller institutions, although they offer more attractive yields, they also expose investors to a greater level of risk.

In this case, the expert says that the investor should seek to make a contribution within the limit covered by the FGC (Credit Guarantee Fund), which guarantees the amount of up to R$ 250 thousand per CPF and financial conglomerate, in case of any financial problems that arise. the issuing institution will suffer along the way.

“With the Selic maintained at 13.75%, post-fixed securities represent a good alternative for investors, in the case of CDBs and LCIs and LCAs, as they are instruments that benefit directly from the CDI level”, says Rosiane Duarte , analyst at Toro Investimentos.

Economist and founding partner of the Serafin consultancy, Bruno Mori says that, for investors who already have an emergency reserve formed, allocating a portion of the funds to fixed fixed income can also bring good returns for the portfolio.

“Most likely local interest rates will not rise, and at some point this year, especially in the second half, they should start to fall. In this sense, longer-term fixed-rate investment, of one or two years, provided person does not need liquidity, it can be interesting”, says the expert.

In the Focus bulletin, economists consulted by the BC project the Selic rate at 12.75% at the end of this year, and at 10% in December 2024.

SAVINGS INCOME LESS THAN HALF SELIC

The savings account, on the other hand, has the lowest return among the analyzed options, even without the IR discount.

Even with the recent upward trend in the basic interest rate, which increases the attractiveness of fixed income products in general, the yield on savings accounts has not changed.

Despite the increase in the Selic rate, which rose from the historic low of 2% in March 2021 to the current 13.75% per year, the application of the passbook continues with an unchanged yield of 6.17% per year, plus the TR ( Referential Rate).

Savings remuneration is 0.5% per month whenever the Selic rate is above 8.5% per year. When the basic rate is up to 8.5%, the savings yield is equivalent to 70% of the Selic rate.

“In this scenario, savings, despite being an easy and safe application, is not competitive, yielding less than half of the Selic”, says Storfer.

Inflation at still pressured levels, added to the more restrictive financial conditions imposed by the advance of the Selic, has contributed to increasing withdrawals of savings resources.

In February, the savings account recorded net withdrawals of R$ 11.515 billion, according to data released by the Central Bank. This was the largest net withdrawal of resources ever recorded for the month of February in the historical series of the monetary authority, which began in 1995.