See the dollar rate and the stock exchange today – 06/09/2023 – Market

After the Corpus Christi holiday kept the markets closed on Thursday (8) in Brazil, the dollar started the session in a moderate fall against the dollar in the last trading session of the week. Investors await the Fed’s monetary policy decision next week.

At 9:03 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar retreated 0.17%, to R$ 4.9161 in the sale. On the B3, at 9:03 am (Brasília time), the first contract dollar futures contract fell 0.28%, to R$ 4.9385.

In the trading session on Wednesday (7), the dollar rose by 0.26%, to R$4.925, amid expectations regarding the next interest rate decision by the Fed (Federal Reserve, the US central bank).

Most US market operators expect the Fed to keep the country’s interest rates unchanged at its next meeting, but mixed data on the US economy still causes uncertainty in the market, with most investors betting on a new high of 0, 25 percentage point.

“There is a division within the Fomc [comitê que toma decisões sobre os juros nos EUA]. Part of the members signaled that they wanted to continue raising interest rates, while another part wanted more time to analyze the lagged effects of monetary policy”, says Sávio Barbosa, chief economist at Kínitro capital.

The manager predicts that the Fed will not raise interest rates at the next meeting, but should use its statement to signal new hikes this year.

A near stability scenario tends to put pressure on the dollar, as the currency would benefit from an increase in interest rates, which makes US fixed income more attractive. A new high, in reverse logic, would appreciate the dollar.

On the other hand, the Brazilian Stock Exchange marked the fifth session in a row with an increase, after the release of positive inflation data in Brazil, which came in below expectations in May and reinforced bets on an early cut of the Selic (basic interest rate) in the second half this year.

The IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) released on Wednesday that the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index), Brazil’s official inflation indicator, slowed to 0.23% in May, after rising 0.61% in April . In the accumulated 12 months, the index registers an increase of 3.94%, the lowest level since October 2020.

The data positively surprised the market, which projected a rise of 0.33% in the month, and reinforced the projections triggered by the IPCA-15 about the beginning of an interest rate cut in Brazil in the second half of this year.

According to the latest Focus bulletin, released on Monday (5), the market predicts that the Selic will be reduced by 0.50 percentage points in September, against 0.25 points previously estimated. Most houses, however, are betting on an interest rate cut in August, a view reinforced by recent inflation data.

One of them is the Bank of America, which claims that the new inflation data reinforce its projections for cutting the Selic in August. Bradesco and BTG, on the other hand, maintained their forecasts for September, but say they recognize the possibility of an anticipation.

An early cut of the Selic rate could further boost local assets, both by making variable income more attractive and by allowing companies to have easier access to credit, supporting investments.

With Reuters