See the dollar quote today – 03/31/2023 – Market

The dollar fell against the real in the first trades this Friday (31), in a session that should have volatility due to the closing of the Ptax at the end of the month and quarter, as investors continued to digest the proposal of the new fiscal rule in Brazil and waited US inflation data.

The Ptax is an exchange rate calculated by the BC (Central Bank) that serves as a reference for the settlement of futures contracts. At the end of each month, financial agents usually try to direct it to more convenient levels for their positions, whether they are bought or sold in dollars.

According to Guilherme Esquelbek, from Correparti brokerage, this dispute should generate a lot of volatility this Friday, but the short ones, who bet on the fall of the dollar, seem to stand out.

At 9:23 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar advanced 0.22%, to R$ 5.1091 on sale, a movement that comes after the currency has already accumulated a low of 3.63% in the last five sessions.

With this recent fall, the currency was on track to end March at a low of around 2.5%, still accumulating a 3.4% drop in the first quarter of 2023.

On B3, at 9:23 am (Brasília time), the first contract dollar futures contract fell 0.23%, to R$ 5.0865.

Investors continued this Friday to digest the government’s proposal for the new fiscal rule, which will have a lock to prevent federal spending from growing more than revenue, but will also have a minimum limit for the evolution of expenses, which will always grow above the inflation.

“Without getting into the technicalities of the rule, it has divided analysts, but our view is that a cap on expenses through past revenue can help curb overspending,” the team at Guide Investimentos said in a note to clients.

Meanwhile, Correparti’s Esquelbek drew attention to the dollar’s rise abroad, with its index against a basket of strong peers advancing 0.20% ahead of US inflation data.

The US Department of Commerce releases at 9:30 am (Brasília time) the data for February of the PCE index – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure (Federal Reserve). Stronger-than-expected data could resurrect fears that the US central bank will remain firm in the conduct of monetary policy, even in the face of risks in the banking sector.