See stock exchange and dollar quotes today – 04/10/2023 – Market

The dollar starts the session this Monday (10th) in a slight decline, trading at R$5.0500 on sale, in a week in which investor attention remains focused on the processing of the new fiscal rules in Brasília.

Investors also resonate with the employment data in the United States released on Friday (7), when the markets were closed due to the Good Friday holiday.

On B3, at 9:13 am (Brasília time), the first contract dollar futures contract fell 0.1%, to R$ 5.0660.

On Thursday (6), in a session of reduced liquidity due to the holiday, the dollar and future interest rates rose after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) returned to make statements about possible changes in the inflation target.

The American currency ended trading in the last session of last week at a slight increase of 0.19%, at R$ 5.059 on sale, remaining practically stable in the accumulated result for the week.

In the futures interest market, the contract for January 2024 rose from 13.22% to 13.26%, the bond for January 2026 rose from 11.81% to 11.90%, while the contract for 2027 rose from 11 .90% to 12.00%.

The movement in the markets came after President Lula again mentioned the possibility of changing the inflation target, with the aim of holding interest rates in Brazil.

Lula made the statement at a breakfast with journalists on Thursday. At the end of the conversation, however, he said that he was just discussing a speech by the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, and that he does not intend to fight with the head of the institution.

Lula was referring to a hypothesis raised by the president of the Central Bank, that, in order to meet the current inflation target, interest rates should be at 26.5% per year —well above the current 13.75%. Campos Neto thought that would be impossible.

The petista criticized the BC’s hypothesis and interest rate policy. He then stated: “If the goal [de inflação] is wrong, the goal is changed”.

“These days, I read a sentence that I don’t know if it was said by the president of the Central Bank that, to reach the 3% target, 20% interest would be needed [Campos Neto falou em 26,5%]. I don’t know if that was true, but at the very least it’s unreasonable. because if the goal [de inflação] is wrong, the goal is changed”, he said.

The center of the official target for inflation in 2023 is 3.25% and, for 2024, 3%, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points, more or less.

Minister Fernando Haddad (Finance) said on Thursday that the fiscal framework proposed by the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) government, which promises to put public accounts in order, will require a drop in the basic interest rate (Selic) – currently set at 13.75% per annum.

“That [plano fiscal] will demand, more than allow, a drop in the interest rate, because if the accounts are in order, there is no reason to pay such high interest, which is the highest in the world today”, said Haddad in an interview with BandNews TV.

“I think there is convergence between fiscal policy, revenues and expenditures, and monetary policy, which takes care of inflation and the path of the public debt,” he added.

On Wednesday, however, the president of the Central Bank said that there is no direct relationship between the fiscal framework and the drop in interest rates. For him, the proposal can help in the disinflation process by positively affecting the channel of expectations of economic agents.

“There is no mechanical relationship between the tax and the interest rate in the way it is set. The important thing for us is to act within the target system. We have an inflation target and we look at expectations. The most important thing is how the measures we being announced affect the channel of expectations”, said Campos Neto at a Bradesco BBI event.

The basic interest rate (Selic), defined by the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) of the Central Bank has been the target of attacks by Lula and members of the government for months. For the Executive, the current level is too high, which would jeopardize plans to boost the economy. The Copom justifies the decision in light of fiscal uncertainties and the deterioration of inflation prospects.

On the Stock Exchange, the Ibovespa operated close to stability throughout the entire session on Thursday, ending business with a slight drop of 0.15%, at 100,820 points. In the week, the index retreated 1.04%, having marked the fifth consecutive fall, after closing down 0.88% in the previous trading session, when investors reacted mainly to the announcement of change in Petrobras’ pricing policy.

The Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, said on Wednesday that the state-owned company would change its trade policy to adopt a new model, which he named PCI (internal competitiveness price). According to him, the change would reduce the price of diesel by up to R$ 0.25 per liter.

On Thursday, President Lula disavowed the Minister of Mines and Energy in discussions of a change in Petrobras’ pricing policy. The petista said that the government is still going to debate a change in this calculation.

At breakfast with journalists, Lula said that he was “taken by surprise” by the minister’s statements, which provoked irritation at the top of Petrobras.

In Thursday’s session, shares in private oil companies were among the biggest risers of the day, with gains of 5.2% for 3R Petroleum and 4.3% for PetroRio. Petrobras shares fell by around 1.2%.

In the sanitation sector, Sabesp’s shares rose 0.7%, after the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), stated that the company’s privatization will include a mechanism for municipalities to participate in the company’s results, which should serve as an incentive for mayors to engage in privatization.

In the week, among the biggest falls on the stock exchange, Natura shares dropped 15.15%, according to data compiled by the TradeMap platform. On Thursday alone, the cosmetics company’s roles fell 5.5%.

“Today was yet another very negative day for Natura’s shares, once again among the main declines of the Ibovespa index, still reflecting the announcement of the sale of Aesop. Even if this operation represents a positive change for the company, leaving a leveraged position of balance for a more comfortable net cash position, the fear of the market is that by selling one of its best assets, the company may find it difficult to maintain gains for the coming years”, said Rodrigo Azevedo, CFP financial planner, economist and partner -founder of GT Capital

Abroad, after starting the day in decline, the main stock indices in the United States reversed the trend to close the day with moderate gains before the holiday. The Nasdaq gained 0.76% and the S&P 500 gained 0.36%, while the Dow closed flat.

This Monday, investors reverberate the labor market data released on Friday, when markets remained closed.

The US Department of Labor reported that the US economy continued to add jobs at a rapid pace in March, reducing the unemployment rate from 3.6% to 3.5%, in a sign of persistent tightening in the labor market that could lead to the Fed (Federal Reserve, US central bank) to raise interest rates again next month.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 236,000 jobs last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast an increase of 239,000 jobs.

With Reuters