Secretary says that fundraising from the super-rich was a surprise and the target should not be revised

The Secretary of the National Treasury, Rogério Ceron, declared that the expenditure block in the 2024 Budget could be zero in the first assessment scheduled for March, if revenue remains at the same initial pace this year. According to Ceron, preliminary data indicates that revenues are in line with projections, aiming to reach the fiscal target of closing the deficit in 2024.

A positive surprise, he says, was the entry in January of resources from the taxation of resources abroad (offshore) and exclusive investment funds in Brazil, related to the so-called “super-rich”. The secretary emphasizes that the data is not yet consolidated, but the inflow of these resources exceeded the initial revenue estimates, which were around R$20 billion for the year.

“For now, there is no review yet. The IRS is reevaluating each of the measures, but, in principle, there are no major changes in relation to our projections. The month’s collection is performing well, in line with the budget law planning. If it materializes, [o ano] starts well. Of course, this is dynamic over time, but today it outlines a good scenario for 2024, reinforcing the possibility of achieving the goals that were agreed upon”, said Ceron in an interview with Newspaper published this Friday (2).

Removing the contingency risk may reduce the pressure for a change in the fiscal target established by Minister Fernando Haddad, of Finance. Ceron highlights that, if revenue remains in line with projections in February, without major changes, it will not be necessary to make any adjustments. He mentions the band of 0.25 percentage points, which allows a negative result up to this limit.

Regarding a possible overshoot of the zero deficit target in 2024, which could impact the government’s fiscal space in 2026, the year of presidential elections, Ceron points out that the 2022 result showed that fiscal matters are not decisive in the elections. He states that the decision on public accounts will not be based on this factor.

Regarding the correction of the income tax table recently announced by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), Ceron mentions that it is under study, and should not significantly impact the fiscal target. He highlights that there will be compensation and that the measure does not substantially change the fiscal scenario.

On the other hand, the provisional measure to re-encumber sectors of the economy may still generate discussions. Ceron assesses that the Emergency Program for the Resumption of the Events Sector (Perse) and the compensations are well addressed, but the issue of exemption is more controversial and is being analyzed by the Minister of Finance.

“I think everyone understands that it was a temporary, emergency benefit, that it has lost its meaning, that it is being abused and has a very different impact from what was approved”, adds the secretary.