Retail sales in Rio Grande do Sul grow 5.8% in January, well above Brazil
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Brazil had growth in the indicator, but much less, of 3.8% in restricted retail.
For the broader cut, with construction materials and vehicles, the State had an increase of 1.6% in the first month of the year. In the country, the increase was almost imperceptible, 0.2%.
In the annual comparison, with January 2022, the Rio Grande do Sul sector advanced 8.5% and in the expanded segment, 9.2%. In the national average, restricted retail, which ranges from supermarkets and gas stations to stationery stores and pharmacies, had an increase of 2.6%, and in broad retail, 0.6%.
The chief economist of CDL Porto Alegre, Oscar Frank, points out that the growth of restricted retail over December drew a lot of attention, but even so it does not recover the losses verified in the retraction from September until the last month of 2022. “In the last quarter, the accumulated losses were 6, 8%”, points out Frank. “That is, even with the high of January, we were not able to return everything.”
The data came once more with a boost in the sale of fuels that has been alerted by Frank and by the Economy area of Fecomércio-RS, that the column Retail Minute has been citing in content about the PMC.
In the most recent survey, the sale of these products rose by 65.7%, a variation that is more than twice the average of the country, which marked an increase of 26.7%. Performance data by sector is obtained only in comparison with the same month of the previous year. The comparison with the previous month is not made.
“I insist on our reticence about fuels and lubricants. I do not understand that this high reflects reality”, warns the specialist linked to the CDL-POA.
“First, because we are comparing it with a period when we no longer had major restrictions on mobility due to the pandemic, despite the peak of the omicron variant”, emphasizes Frank.
“Secondly, because the demand for the sector (fuels) is inelastic. That is, it does not tend to have large fluctuations, even with price changes. Fuels are essential for many people, so they often end up having to pay more high when the price at the pump is higher”, he explains. In short: if the consumer needs gasoline to work, for example, he ends up having to pay the amount.
The chief economist of the CDL-POA also recalls that data from the State Revenue Service in Rio Grande do Sul do not show an increase in sales volume at the level that the PMC has been pointing out month after month. This mismatch and high percentage has been observed since mid-2022. One suspicion is that the sample used by the IBGE may have greater influence on some companies that have a larger market share, impacting more the variation in overall sales.
Supermarkets have a drop, and stationery stores soar with school demand
In the other segments, supermarkets and hypermarkets saw a drop of 2.1% compared to January 2022.
“The basis for comparison is quite high, as January 2022 had an increase of 4.7% over the same period in 2021”, recalls Frank. “Even with the fall (last January), we had the second highest level for January of the entire historical series”, ponders the economist.
Fabrics, clothing and footwear managed to recover with an increase of 11.1%, after consecutive months in the red, with successive falls. “But it still remains well below January 2020, down 13.1%”, compares Frank. January 2020 was pre-pandemic, which broke out in Brazil in March of that year. “These sectors are in a process of recomposition, after everything that happened due to the pandemic”, he completes.
But furniture and appliances and even pharmacies sold less. The flow was 5.7% and 3.4% lower, respectively, than January last year.
Stationery stores, bookstores and newspapers had the highest rise, after fuel, of course, 51%. Performance is linked to the search for school material items, which focuses on the start of the year.
In expanded retail, vehicles had a 27.2% increase in sales, but on a very low 2022 base. The sector is one of the most affected by the health crisis, due to production stoppages and, even now, they still face problems of low inventory and high costs. Building materials sold 10.4% more, also with successive declines last year, after the boom in the most acute period of the pandemic.
The economist assesses that, looking at a longer period, “it is possible to notice a relatively sharp difference between retailers that are more dependent on income (which perform better) and those that depend on income and credit (performing worse)”, he summarizes, citing the rise in interest rates. , which remains and affects trade in vehicles, building materials, computers, furniture and household appliances.
Clothing is on the rise in Brazil, building materials are in the positive
In January 2023, seven out of eight retail trade activities had positive rates in Brazil. Fabrics, clothing and footwear (27.9%), Computer and communication office equipment and material (7.4%), Hyper, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (2.3%), Other articles for personal use and domestic (2.0%), Fuels and lubricants (1.5%), Furniture and household appliances (1.3%) and Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (0.6%).
The only falling activity was Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles: -1.2%.
The two additional activities, which make up expanded retail, had opposite trajectories: Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces changed by -0.2% and Construction Material grew by 2.9%.
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