Reduction in interest rates and consumption growth

With the half of the year approaching, good perspectives in relation to GDP and inflation are a reality, which indicates a new consumption growth trend. According to an analysis by João Ricardo Tonin, an economist at FoodCo, the market projects a possible reduction in interest rates, already at the next meeting of the Copom — Monetary Policy Committee —, scheduled for the 20th and 21st of June.

Inflation shouldn’t be a big concern. The IPCA and GPM indices for the closing of the year are lower than those of last month — 5% and 1%, respectively. As for GDP, expectations indicate growth of 1.2%, almost double the index released in January. The agricultural sector grew the most (7.3%), followed by services (1%) and industry (0.3%). The highlight goes to the decrease in price variation from month to month, which, according to Tonin, provides an opportunity to improve purchase planning.

For the economist, inflation under control and the good performance of GDP point to a possible reduction in the interest rate, in June, which should be between 0.25% and 0.5%. Tonin points out that bank rates should not change, but if the reduction happens, changes may come soon.

“Faced with this promising scenario, we can breathe a sigh of relief and feel a little more calm. It seems that we are at the beginning of a new consumption growth trend, even in the face of high household indebtedness. It is recommended to keep strict control over costs, keep employees well trained, update the menu, use stagnant stocks of inputs and avoid hasty decisions regarding loans available at the bank. Prudence and focus are the key words at the moment”, concludes Tonin.

The FoodCo. with the complete and audio analysis of the economist João Ricardo Tonin is an exclusive weekly content for the platform’s subscribers. FoodCo. is the largest community of bar and restaurant owners in Brazil. There are more than 13,000 entrepreneurs in the sector gathered in a network of knowledge and networking, with access to essential content for those who undertake food outside the home.